Five index heavyweights to steer trend

TECHNICALS

The session played out along expected lines as the weekend factor impacted sentiment. Traders refrained from enhancing commitments over a weekend and the only sign of life in an otherwise insipid market were mid-cap scrips, which were firm.

The CNX Midcap Index is a barometer of retail segment risk appetite and the same was marginally positive. The market breadth on a combined exchange basis was marginally negative as the figures were 1871 : 1956.

The capitalisation of the breadth on a commensurate basis was also negative as the figures were Rs 6266 crore : Rs 8526 crore.

The derivatives data for Thursday's session indicated a 2 per cent increase in net long positions as the bulls ramped up exposure on the new additions in the derivatives list.

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as the profit sales at higher levels eroded gains. The intraday range specified for Friday at the 4565 / 4470 held as the Nifty spot gyrated within these parameters without testing any of these thresholds.

A compressed trading range is typical of a weekend session and the coming session is likely to witness a range of 4540 on advances and 4480 on declines.

A breakout / draw down beyond these levels with forceful volumes will determine the near term trends in the market. I expect higher levels to attract some profit sales from short term players.

The outlook for the markets on Monday is that of continued optimism subject to positive overseas cues. Keep watching the top five index heavyweights for directional guidance in the coming session/s.

Vijay L. Bhambwani
(CEO- BSPLindia.com)

The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com or ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

Mandatory disclosure: the analyst has no exposure to the scrips mentioned above.