Floods have damaged an estimated 15 per cent of the kharif urad crop. Analysts are now divided over the direction prices would take in the futures market, with most predicting that a clear picture would emerge only after the arrival of the rabi crop in February.
K C Bharatiya, president of the Pulses Importers’ Association (PIA), said prices would maintain in the current range of Rs 80-82 per kg of tur, Rs 54-55 per kg of urad and Rs 27-28 per kg of chana. Although Bharatiya agreed that the recent floods had damaged the standing kharif urad crop, especially in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, he was also quick to point out that this would not drive prices any higher as the loss in kharif output would be compensated with gains in rabi output.
Prices of almost all varieties of pulses have risen sharply due to floods in major growing areas amid fears that arrivals of new crop at mandis would be paralysed. Tur, moong and urad prices rose by Rs 8-10 per kg in the past one week.
| CROPPED SHORT Production estimates in July (million tonnes) | ||||
| Pulses | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 | 2008-09 |
| Tur | 2.74 | 2.31 | 3.08 | 2.31 |
| Urad | 1.25 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.11 |
| Chana | 5.60 | 6.33 | 5.75 | 7.05 |
| Total | 9.59 | 10.08 | 10.29 | 10.47 |
| Source : Ministry of Agriculture | ||||
Lower production in the previous year and lower global stock availability had sharply pushed up the prices of tur and urad to Rs 100 per kg and Rs 70-75 per kg respectively in September this year. The kharif season constitutes about 30 per cent of the country’s overall pulses production with tur as the main crop. Urad comprises 65 per cent of kharif output and 35 per cent of rabi production.
However, the late recovery in rainfall in the months of July and August helped boost acreage area to 97.75 lakh hectares (ha) as on September 17, compared with 92.80 lakh ha on the same date last year. But most of the southern states, which are major growing centres for pulses, have been impacted by devastating floods. As kharif pulses were in various stages of harvesting, there are chances of crop damage, especially if waterlogging remains in the field for over 48 hours.
S P Goenka, director of the Mumbai-based pulses importer U Goenka Sons, said that Myanmar had carry-over tur stocks of about 1.5 lakh tonnes. So, taking benefit of the strengthening rupee against the dollar (over 46.60), Indian importers may start importing Burmese tur. Also, with a new bumper crop likely to hit the market in a couple of months, exporters in Myanmar are rushing to clear old inventories, he said.
“Indian importers will have no problem with the higher prices Burmese exporters want as the lower value of the dollar would comfortably compensate for that,” said Goenka. However, in July this year, the government’s estimates for domestic production of pulses in 2008-09 had projected a 25 per cent decline in tur and urad output at 2.31 million tonnes and 1.11 million tonnes respectively. According to an NCDEX report, the demand-supply gap of pulses, especially of urad and tur, has been widening, leading to a price spurt in the same.
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So the shortfall in supply cannot be met by imports alone as there has been a lower output in other countries. Low tur stocks in Myanmar itself, one of the largest producers of tur, have made it difficult for the country to import adequate quantities.
India imports approximately 2.5 million tonnes of all types of pulses, as against approximately 0.3 million tonnes of exports of all types of processed pulses. India is the world’s largest consumer of pulses — per capita pulses consumption in the country stands at 12 kg per year.