With the southwest monsoon having an uneven run in many parts of India this year, all eyes will be on its impact on kharif production in 2012-2013 as this will have direct bearing on how food prices move in the coming year.
The government is expected to release the first official estimate of 2012-2013 crop marketing around noon today. According to official sources, foodgrains production is estimated to fall by 10% in the kharif season this year to 117.19 million tonnes due to deficient monsoon and drought in some states.
Last year, India produced a record 129.94 million tonnes of foodgrains during the kharif season. Output of rice, the biggest foodgrain sown during the kharif season is projected to fall by 6.5% to 85.56 million tonnes.
Production of pulses is estimated to fall by almost 1.5 million tonnes to around 5-5.5 million tonnes , while while coarse cereals output is estimated to fall to a little over 26 million tonnes from 32.26 million tonnes. Experts said the biggest cause of concern would be the drop in output of pulses and oilseeds to some extent as their import dependency will increase.
India annually imports more than half of its edible oil demand, while import of pulses hovers between 1.5 to 2.o million tonnes. Kharif sowing, started in June, is almost complete and harvest will start from early next month.
The southwest monsoon which provides almost 70% of total moisture needed for the country has had a rather uneven run in 2012. From a shortfall of almost 20% during the first two months of the season, the rainfall at present is just 5% below normal.
The initial deficiency lead to drought-like conditions in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan have declared drought in over 390 taluks.
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