Global cues to determine direction

TECHNICALS

The markets opened with a significant weakness in the undertone and proceeded to crawl higher amidst steady volumes. The market breadth was negative as the combined exchange figures were 1348 : 2514.

The capitalisation of the breadth on a commensurate basis was also negative as the figures were Rs 9316 Crs : Rs 14247 Crs.

The f&o data for the previous session indicated a falling implied volatility and steady put call ratio.

The weak outlook that was advocated was seen in play as the bulls were clearly on the back foot since the last few sessions.

Short term traders may note that the oriental charts are indicating a "Karakasa" formation that indicates a resilience by the bulls at lower levels.

Only the next two sessions will confirm whether the ensuing pattern "Sankawa soko zukae" will unfold and indicate a pullback rally in the near term.

Volumes and market internals like breadth and open interest will determine the sustain ability of the pullback rally if any. The coming session will witness an intraday range of 5730 on advances and 5300 on declines.

The outlook for the markets on Tuesday is that of guarded optimism as the overseas cues and short covering at lower levels will determine the short term trends. Avoid fresh shorts for now, till things stabilise.

Vijay L. Bhambwani
(CEO- BSPLindia.com)

The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com  or ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

Mandatory disclosure: the analyst has no exposure to any scrip/s recommended above.