The increase in winter wheat cultivation area in the major growing regions and an improved production prospects for 2002 are expected to lead to comfortable supplies of the grain. But, the market sentiment is low due to a large surplus in parts of Europe and Asia and the downturn in the global economic activity.
The world wheat output in 2002 is expected to be higher by 16 million tonne at 590 million tonne as the winter wheat planting has been done on a larger area.
However, the world wheat production in 2001-02 will be lower by eight million tonne at 574 million tonne, while the consumption will increase by five million tonne to reach 600 million tonne, according to the latest forecast by the London-based International Grains Council (IGC).
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Planting for the 2002 crop has been completed in most of Europe under better conditions than last year and on a larger area. Winter what area in the USA is up by two per cent from last year but the recent rains have only partly relieved concerns about dry conditions, IGC stated.
The world trade during the year will be 105 million tonne and ending stocks will reach 120 million tonne, a decrease of 26 million tonne. "The world wheat trade will witness an increase of three million tonne from last season's because of federal wheat shipment, especially to the European Commission despite there being little scope for the market to make major gains on the price front."
Demand for milling and feed wheat is strengthening in the Asia Pacific region with an increased import forecasts from China, Indonesia and South Korea, but the estimates for South America, North Africa and the near East Asia are lower, IGC pointed out. More wheat than previously expected will be shipped from countries other than the five major exporters such as Argentina, Australia, Canada, EC and the USA.
Although wheat supplies in the CIS countries are considerably up from last year, its feed industry cannot absorb the increase and the rising consumption is met by imports.
On the forecast of the ending stocks of 120 million tonne, the combined carryover in the five major exporting countries will be a low 39 million tonne, down from 53 million tonne of 2000-01, IGC added.