Global wheat output may rise 5%

Indian wheat harvest is projected to rise sharply on higher acreage, favourable weather condition.

The global wheat production is expected to rise sharply by about 4.8 per cent in 2007 to touch 626 million tonne, with most countries, barring China, showing marked recovery after the last year's weather-driven poor harvests. Most of the major wheat-exporting countries are anticipating better harvests, indicating possibilities of higher export supplies and consequential softening of international prices.

Thanks to the anticipated spurt in the output of wheat, and an even higher increase of 5.6 per cent in the production of maize, the total cereal production in the world is likely to touch a new high of 2,082 million tonne, about 10 million tonne above the previous record set in 2004.

Though a sizeable part of maize is now being diverted to biofuel production, the projected surge in production may have a sobering impact on the international maize prices. The Indian poultry industry has been hit hard by the spurt in maize prices, as this coarse cereal constitutes a major part of the feed cost.

The latest production estimates have been published by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in its April issue of the crop prospects and food situation report released in Rome early this week. It has projected the rice production in 2007 to rise only marginally by about 3 million tonne to 423 million tonne in 2007.

In Asia, the Indian wheat harvest is projected to increase sharply due to expansion in the area and favourable weather conditions. The total area sown with wheat is officially estimated to have expanded this year by about 1.8 million hectare. The FAO reckons the likely wheat production to be around 73.5 million tonne, up from the last year's 69.3 million tonne.

The Chinese wheat harvest is forecast to decline by 4 per cent to 99.5 million tonne. Wheat plantings were reduced in some parts of China due to dry conditions last autumn. Besides, soil moisture availability is reported to have remained poor in some north-eastern and central parts of China, adversely affecting wheat yields. The report projects Pakistan's wheat output to remain steady, close to the last year's record of 22 million tonne. This is due chiefly to favourable weather during the wheat-growing season till now. The FAO has also predicted larger wheat output in North America and Europe. In the US, the area sown with wheat is reported to have expanded and the damage to the crop due to winterkill is projected to remain low, resulting in optimistic crop outlook. In Europe, too, overall plantings of wheat have expanded and generally favourable winter conditions point to good yield prospects in many countries. The most noteworthy recovery in output is expected in the European CIS after reduced output of te last year, the report says.

In North Africa, on the other hand, wheat production is anticipated to shrink, as weather conditions have been less favourable than the last year's when a bumper harvest was gathered.

In Australia, one of the major wheat exporters where wheat is yet to be sown, the return of the normal season after the last year's worst drought is expected to facilitate a sharp recovery in production.