With a possibility of quantitative easing (QE3) by the US government to bolster the country’s economy, gold prices are expected to cross the $1,800 mark globally by end of the year and, in India, the precious metal is likely to surpass the benchmark Rs 33,000 per 10 gm before the year-end.
“The rupee is prevailing around the level of 55.60 against the dollar since gold started heating from the level of $1,530 about a month ago. Now, when the metal is approaching around $1,700, the Indian rupee continues to remain in the same range. In all probability, the rupee is unlikely to appreciate from this level resulting in gold prices getting support from overseas markets. If QE3 comes, gold would definitely hit Rs 33,000 per 10 gm in India and even higher,” said Prithviraj Kothari, president, Bombay Bullion Association (BBA), a premier body of bullion dealers.
Standard gold in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar shot up by Rs 120 to close on Tuesday at Rs 31,320 per 10 gm as against Rs 31,200 per 10 gm.
The bullion is set to get a strong support from the latest forecast by London–based global precious metals consultancy firm, Thomson Reuters GFMS, which in its quarterly Gold Survey said, “Gold price is expected to clear the $1,800 mark before year-end.”
While releasing the Survey on September 4, Philip Klapwijk, global head of metals analytics at the consultancy firm, said, “We have already seen the lows for the year and that firmer prices, particularly towards year-end, are on the cards. But we are also expecting a bumpy ride looking ahead - any intensification of the euro zone crisis or dashing of hopes for further easing by the Fed and you could easily see the rally derailed for a while”.
The yellow metal will be strongly influenced by governments’ monetary and fiscal policies, particularly those enacted by the US administration. GFMS, however, does not see gold hitting 2011’s highs of just over $1,900 an oz in the near future.
GFMS’s forecast was supported by similar opinion cited by the US-based CPM group, which in its latest report, says that gold prices began to rise towards the end of August and the trend would continue through the remainder of the year. Gold prices typically strengthen on a seasonal basis starting in September.