The focus will be on Greece and its problems for all of this week and, probably, much of the next. It is possible that Greece's troubles will trigger a disorderly sequence of exits from the euro currency union. But this is not likely.
The Greek economy contributes less than two per cent of European gross domestic product (GDP). The problem is that it has swallowed enormous debt, with government debt at over 1.7 times the GDP. There have been a succession of bailouts over five years but those have not helped economic recovery.
If Greece is cut loose from the euro, it has a better chance. But lenders will take a haircut in that case. Also, a Greek default could tempt other highly indebted nations (Spain, Portugal, Italy) in the zone to default and perhaps to exit the currency union. This would have a negative impact on global trade. The possibility of this is very low but will mean the currency stays vulnerable until the crisis is resolved.
There will be five-six sessions before clarity arrives with the results of the Greek referendum. After that, markets should settle down, one way or another, with long-term trends likely to be established at that stage.
Here are some possible scenarios:
In one, the crisis is temporarily sorted out. The referendum accepts the terms of the last bailout with its five month extension and an additional Euro 15.5 billion aid in exchange for reforms. In this case, the euro hardens and equity markets see a sharp recovery. Greece will then offer another opportunity for bears, five months down the line, when the next bailout is due.
In another scenario, Greece says 'No' but doesn't leave the currency union. The creditors offer a softer deal. A third scenario, which is reportedly playing out has seen Greece ask for two years (instead of five months). Or, there could be some sort of deal with terms acceptable to all parties. The market may respond favourably in these cases, but Greece will continue to exert a bearish influence every so often as bailouts are renegotiated.
In a fourth scenario, Greece says 'No' and leaves the currency union. This will mean immense short-term turmoil in currency and equity markets. The creditors who hold Greek debt will take a hammering. But the problem will be dealt with. Greece will get a chance to use monetary policy (that is, depreciate the drachma) to put its economy in order. This would be a long-term opportunity if share prices correct down while future prospects improve.
These possibilities are not exhaustive. But in most cases we can conceive of, there will be a recovery across asset values in the next week. By then, the markets might have corrected significantly. The dollar will probably gain in every case. Uncertainty has triggered an ongoing flight into safe dollar assets.
The fundamentals remain the same for India given little direct entanglement with Greece. However, massive volatility in the euro zone will affect trade. If the euro falls for an extended period against the rupee, then Indian exports will be adversely affected.
Indian corporates with euro exposures range from information technology companies with a substantial percentage of income from the euro zone to physical businesses with factories (steel plants, automobiles) located in that area. Those businesses are likely to get hit, in terms of perceptions as well as incomes. The auto ancillary industry for example, derives over 35 per cent of all export income from the euro zone.
Investors would have to make a call, case by case, on valuations of such businesses. A deep temporary correction might create a buying opportunity.
The Greek economy contributes less than two per cent of European gross domestic product (GDP). The problem is that it has swallowed enormous debt, with government debt at over 1.7 times the GDP. There have been a succession of bailouts over five years but those have not helped economic recovery.
Read more from our special coverage on "GREECE CRISIS"
If Greece is cut loose from the euro, it has a better chance. But lenders will take a haircut in that case. Also, a Greek default could tempt other highly indebted nations (Spain, Portugal, Italy) in the zone to default and perhaps to exit the currency union. This would have a negative impact on global trade. The possibility of this is very low but will mean the currency stays vulnerable until the crisis is resolved.
There will be five-six sessions before clarity arrives with the results of the Greek referendum. After that, markets should settle down, one way or another, with long-term trends likely to be established at that stage.
Here are some possible scenarios:
In one, the crisis is temporarily sorted out. The referendum accepts the terms of the last bailout with its five month extension and an additional Euro 15.5 billion aid in exchange for reforms. In this case, the euro hardens and equity markets see a sharp recovery. Greece will then offer another opportunity for bears, five months down the line, when the next bailout is due.
In another scenario, Greece says 'No' but doesn't leave the currency union. The creditors offer a softer deal. A third scenario, which is reportedly playing out has seen Greece ask for two years (instead of five months). Or, there could be some sort of deal with terms acceptable to all parties. The market may respond favourably in these cases, but Greece will continue to exert a bearish influence every so often as bailouts are renegotiated.
In a fourth scenario, Greece says 'No' and leaves the currency union. This will mean immense short-term turmoil in currency and equity markets. The creditors who hold Greek debt will take a hammering. But the problem will be dealt with. Greece will get a chance to use monetary policy (that is, depreciate the drachma) to put its economy in order. This would be a long-term opportunity if share prices correct down while future prospects improve.
These possibilities are not exhaustive. But in most cases we can conceive of, there will be a recovery across asset values in the next week. By then, the markets might have corrected significantly. The dollar will probably gain in every case. Uncertainty has triggered an ongoing flight into safe dollar assets.
The fundamentals remain the same for India given little direct entanglement with Greece. However, massive volatility in the euro zone will affect trade. If the euro falls for an extended period against the rupee, then Indian exports will be adversely affected.
Indian corporates with euro exposures range from information technology companies with a substantial percentage of income from the euro zone to physical businesses with factories (steel plants, automobiles) located in that area. Those businesses are likely to get hit, in terms of perceptions as well as incomes. The auto ancillary industry for example, derives over 35 per cent of all export income from the euro zone.
Investors would have to make a call, case by case, on valuations of such businesses. A deep temporary correction might create a buying opportunity.
The author is a technical and equity analyst