Trade's first estimates of kharif edible oilseeds crop, excluding castorseed, is about 119 lakh tonne compared with last year's 115.6 lakh tonne, said Govindlal G Patel, managing partner of Rajkot-based Dipak Enterprise and an acknowledged industry expert on estimates. |
Patel said his first estimates might be considered conservative as rains were still on in various oilseed growing regions and thus, the output might go up to 123 lakh tonne. "We are yet to assess any possible damage from the excessive rains in various parts of the country," he said. |
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"The rise in the output this kharif is likely to be led by good groundnut crop," said Patel. Kharif groundnut output, according to his estimates is likely to be about 53.5 lakh tonne compared with 44.5 lakh tonne last year. This is better than average of last ten years, at 46.7 lakh tonne. |
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"Groundnut crop in Gujarat is seen up to 20 lakh tonne compared with last year's 15 lakh tonne and the crop in south Indian states is also likely to be better this year." Kharif soybean crop is likely to be 55 lakh tonne, down from last year's 58.5 lakh tonne. |
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"Soybean acreage has decreased this year. Over that, the moisture stress at August-end, following delay in rains, has affected the yields per hectare." Kharif sunflower crop is likely to be 4 lakh tonne, down from last year's 4.9 lakh tonne. |
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Kharif sesame seed crop is likely to be 3.5 lakh tonne, down from last year's 4.7 lakh tonne. The rapeseed and niger seed crop are likely to be 1.5 lakh tonne each, the same as last year. |
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The carry over stocks in the oil year 2005-06 (that is, November-October) of rapeseed will be upto 33 lakh tonne, compared with 15 lakh tonne last year. |
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The soybean carry-over is also likely to be around 3-5 lakh tonne, same as last year. "Overall, this is likely to increase the availability of domestic edible oils next oil year." |
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The major kharif oilseed producing regions are Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. |
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