Gujarat, the top cotton producing state in India, is likely to register a production of 10.5-11 million bales (one bale = 170 kg) in 2008-09 (October-September), down marginally from the estimated output of 11.5 million bales in 2007-08, cotton traders and industry officials said on Monday.
Traders said there will not be much impact of the fall in cotton acreage this year.
“Good rainfall in the state at regular intervals proved to be good for the cotton crop. The area under cotton in the state has gone down to 2.45 million hectares (ha) this kharif from 2.52 million ha a year ago, but that won’t impact the output in a big way,” said Sourin Parekh, president, All Gujarat Ginners’ Association.
Good rainfall during July was good for standing cotton crop in Gujarat. The state is likely to produce 11 million bales in the 2008-09 marketing season, he said.
“Looking at the favourable weather situation in the state, we estimate that the state’s cotton output this year will be around 10.5-11 million bales,” said Arun Dalal, an Ahmedabad-based trader.
However, September will prove to be most important month for cotton, Parekh said.
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“If there is rainfall during September in the state, then there might be some revision in these estimates. Excess rainfall in September can damage the cotton crop,” he said.
Fresh arrivals are likely to start from the end of September or first week of October.
“Arrivals will also depend on the rainfall in September. If there is rainfall, then the arrivals might get delayed a bit,” said a Kadi-based trader. Cotton sowing in the state is almost complete and around 2.40 million ha have been brought under cultivation till now, said Dalal.
“Sowing of Bt cotton is over in the state and Kalyan 797 sowing is nearing completion. Around 1.9 million ha area is under Bt cotton, while the rest is under Kalyan 797,” said Dalal.
Most traders feel the new cotton marketing season may kick off with the prices around Rs 25,500-26,000 per candy.
“Prices will open higher this season, as there will not be any carry-forward stock of cotton. At present, there would be around 100,000-125,000 bales of Sankar-6 cotton in the state, which will be sold by the time new arrivals start,” said Parekh.