Gujarat likely to go the Maharashtra way

MONSOON WATCH

After the deluge in Maharashtra, it is the turn of Gujarat and adjoining areas to face the fury of the monsoon now. The ongoing heavy downpour in north Konkan and Gujarat is expected to continue for next two to three days before it subsides.

Good showers are also likely in the entire central, eastern and western region in the next two to three days thanks to a new low pressure formation. Only the north-western states and south-peninsular region will receive light rainfall till at least the beginning of August.

The experts and policy planners, who were till recently grappling with the management of delayed rainfall are now focusing on mitigating the effects of floods.

Fresh agro-advisories have been issued, suggesting planting of short-duration crop varieties after the flood water recedes.

Fish farmers have been advised treatment of the pond waters and fresh stocking of fish seed to assure good post-floods catches.

However, agriculture experts feel that it is too premature to hazard a guess on how will the belated planting and floods-driven changes in cropping pattern affect the overall kharif production prospects.

If managed well, the outcome may still be normal as the sowing season is not over yet, the experts believe. Purely from the crop production viewpoint, floods are any time better than drought.

They usually compensate for the output loss over a period. The loss of property and human and livestock lives is, of course, irretrievable.

According to National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) director Akhilesh Gupta, a fresh low pressure area is building up over the Bay of Bengal which, in combination with the existing two low pressure areas over western Madhya Pradesh and north-western Bay of Bengal, may cause heavy and sustained rainfall over the central , eastern and western India in the next 48 to 72 hours.

Regarding the unprecedented rainfall in Mumbai, Gupta said: "We had predicted heavy rainfall during this period but we did not expect it to be exceptionally excessive. This was totally unexpected."

Agricultural experts are advising the farmers to arrange for drainage of water from the crop fields in the areas affected by excess rainfall or floods.

Direct seeding of rice after puddling of soil has been recommended in the areas inundated by flood waters. Where paddy has already been transplanted and the seedlings have been affected by the torrential showers or any other cause, the farmers have been advised to go in for gap filling as early as possible.

The fields need to be kept free of weeds for better crop growth.

In areas where soyabean has not yet been sown, the farmers have been advised to plant it at the earliest.

In Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, shorter duration soyabean varieties, such as JS 9305, NRC-7 and MAUS61, should be preferred. Balanced application of fertilisers and control of weeds manually or through weedicide sprays has also been recommended.

Sunflower and castor can still be planted in the southern states. Farmers have been suggested to go for hybrids like DBSH-1, KBSH44, MSFH-17, and Jwalamukhi, for sowing at this stage.

However, sunflower cultivation has been advised only in large contiguous stretches because isolated fields are liable to suffer heavy damage from the birds. Castor can be planted in Gujarat up to the first fortnight of August.

Fish farmers in the flood-hit areas have been advised to treat their ponds with 200 kg of lime per hectare to remove the turbidity and improve water quality. No paucity of fish seed is anticipated as the fish breeding season has just begun. The fishermen have been suggested to procure their requirement from the state fisheries department centres located in their areas.

The revived monsoon has led to rapid recharging of water reservoirs. According to the Central Water Commission which monitors water storage in the country's 76 major reservoirs, the total storage on July 22 was 45.12 billion cubic metres (BCM).

This is whopping 66 per cent higher than last year's corresponding position of 27.14 BCM and some 25 per cent up from past 10 years' average corresponding level of 36.06 BCM.

Five dams are already more than 80 per cent full and another 20 are over half full -- a situation seldom witnessed at this time of the year in recent past.Only five reservoirs reported no live storage till July 22. These are Machkund (Jalput) and Balimela in Orissa, Isapur and Yeldari in Maharashtra and Somasila in Andhra Pradesh.