Despite cotton exports being allowed under the open general licence (OGL) from October 1, there seem to be few takers for these. Falling prices have affected Indian exporters following reports of high crop estimates from all producing countries.
Earlier, 10 million bales of cotton were allowed to be exported till the end of September, the last cotton year. Traders had met this deadline.
India’s benchmark Shankar-6 variety is quoted at 110 cents at the global index for cotton prices – Cotlook Index. The price, at the current exchange rate, works out to Rs 42,688 per candy. Exporters say if prices fall or the rupee loses further against the dollar, profit margins will take a beating. Cotton exports will only be viable if the prevalent rate to procure cotton in the domestic market remains at Rs 39,000 per candy (provided the exchange rate and global market remain at the same level).
“Exporters are staying away for the time being, because of the volatile currency and falling prices in the global market,” said an exporter. While nearly 10 million bales of cotton shipments were completed last weekend, new exports will take off slowly. From October, cotton exports have been placed under OGL.
The global cotton market was not attractive for Indian exporters, as the yield was expected to be much higher in all major producing countries this season, said a release from the International Cotton Advisory Committee.
Global cotton production is expected to rise by eight per cent from 24.9 million tonnes last year, to 26.9 million tonnes (124 million bales, one bale = 170 kg) in 2011-12. The increase in output will be driven primarily by China, followed by India, Pakistan, Australia and Turkey. China’s production is expected to rise by 13 per cent to 7.2 million tonnes, India’s by nine per cent to 6.0 million tonnes, Pakistan’s by 19 per cent to 2.3 million tonnes, Australia’s by 23 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes, and Turkey’s by 42 per cent to 641,000 tonnes.
India’s cotton crop estimates by all agencies also stood higher with the agriculture ministry expecting 36.1 million bales, the Cotton Advisory Board estimating 25.5 million bales and the Cotton Association of India estimating 36.3 million bales.
More From This Section
Arun Dalal, an Ahmedabad-based cotton trader, said: “Cotton prices could fall further as the arrivals of new cotton crop increases, but exporters are expected to enter the market when the price touches the Rs 38,000 marl. Mills are also looking to buy more from the coming season.” He said 600,000-700,000 bales of cotton would be exported over the next few months.
However, the over all scene for cotton is not so enthusiastic. Ginners are worried as cost of cotton ginning has been going up. Market price of cotton is expected to fall further as arrivals increase from 35,000 bales every day to 70,000 bales in another fortnight. Prices of cotton by-products are also falling. In the last one month, cotton seed prices have fallen from Rs 380 per 20 kg to Rs 325, cotton seed oil from Rs 820 per 50 kg to Rs 700 and oil cake from Rs 680 per 10 kg to Rs 580.
MCX launched cotton futures trading on Monday and prices quoted were ex-warehouse, Rajkot. Delivery centres have been set up at many places by contract. MCX cotton futures recorded a volume of 9,600 bales valued at Rs 17.73 crore. Open interest was 1,575 bales.