India's wheat imports may decline 37 per cent to 1,00,000 tonnes this fiscal because of high global prices that have surged on supply concerns in Russia, where a severe drought has hit the crop, trade experts said.
Russia has decided to ban wheat exports from August 15. It produces roughly eight percent of the world's wheat supply and exports about 11 per cent of the global export.
"Earlier, we had pegged wheat imports at 2 lakh tonnes. But now looking at the global price situation, I think imports could touch one lakh tonnes maximum this fiscal," Roller Flour Mills Federation ex-President M K Dattaraj said.
Last fiscal, the country imported 1,58,000 tonnes of wheat, which attracts zero import duty. Flour mills import high protein variety of wheat, mostly from Australia, for making cookies and breads.
Dattaraj pointed out that wheat imports are not feasible at this point of time as global prices have skyrocketed in the last few days because of the development in Russia.
Nearly 50,000 tonnes of wheat has been imported so far this fiscal, while another 50,000 tonnes is in pipeline, he said, adding that more contracts are unlikely.
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Wheat Products Promotion Society member Vinod Kapoor was also of the view that there could be some drop in imports if prices continue to be high in the coming days.
"Global prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have risen sharply on anticipation that global supplies might get affected due to crop loss in Russia following drought and wildfire," Kochi-based commodity brokerage JRG Wealth Vice President and Head (Research) Harish G said.
At CBOT last week, prices of the most active September wheat contract touched a high of 841 cents per bushel (a measure of capacity equivalent to 8 gallons), which was up 27 per cent, compared to 661.5 cents in the previous week, he added.
India, the world's second biggest producer of wheat, had produced 80.71 million tonnes in 2009-10 crop year (July-June).