Immediate hurdle for Crude Oil seen at Rs 6,400; Natural Gas at Rs 589

On the downside, Rs 5,850 seems to be a good support for Crude Oil; Whereas Natural Gas futures have multiple supports as per the daily chart.

The MCX Crude Oil futures continue to trade with a negative bias, as the commodity trades below all its key moving averages. On the other hand, the Natural Gas futures has climbed above few of its moving averages and is seen testing resistance at its 100-DMA for the third time in little more than a month.

Crude Oil

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 6,275

Target: Rs 4,800

Support: Rs 5,850

Resistance: Rs 6,400

The MCX Crude Oil December futures have bounced back after testing support around the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart at Rs 5,850 level. Despite the pullback, the overall outlook remains negative as Crude Oil prices trade substantially below key moving averages.

The immediate resistance for MCX Crude Oil is seen at Rs 6,400 level - its 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average). The energy-based commodity will need to sustain above this level on a consistent basis, for a meaningful pullback rally to emerge.

Meanwhile, on the flip side, failure to conquer the 20-DMA hurdle could see Crude Oil prices re-test the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, at Rs 5,850-odd level.

On the weekly chart, Crude Oil prices are seen struggling below the 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) for the second straight week. The chart hints near support at Rs 5,950 level, below which a severe slide to Rs 4,900 level seems possible. The monthly chart, too, are in favour of the bears.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil December futures have near resistance at Rs 6,337 and Rs 6,446. On the downside, near support is seen at Rs 6,080; below the bias is likely to strongly favour the bears this week.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil December contract could seek support around Rs 6,190 - Rs 6,160 - Rs 6,135. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 6,360 - Rs 6,390 - Rs 6,415. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Neutral

Last close: Rs 574.80

Support: Rs 535.70; Rs 520

Resistance: Rs 578; Rs 589

The MCX Natural Gas December futures bounced back smartly from lows of Rs 449.20, and for the third time in little more than a month are seen testing the 100-DMA resistance. The 100-DMA currently stands at Rs 589.

Similarly, on the weekly set-up, the energy-based commodity has been unable to conquer its 20-WMA since mid-September. The 20-WMA is currently placed at Rs 578.

However, momentum oscillators, both, on the daily and weekly charts now seem a bit favourable.

On the downside, the weekly chart suggests near support at Rs 520-odd level; whereas, as per the daily chart, the commodity could seek support around the 200-DMA, followed by 20-DMA and 50-DMA at Rs 562.50, Rs 535.70 and Rs 515, respectively.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, Natural Gas futures have given a strong buy signal for the week. The bias for the remainder of the week is likely to remain bullish as long as the commodity sustains above Rs 539 - 526 support zone. On the upside, sustained trade above Rs 578 could trigger a rally towards Rs 643.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas December futures may seek support around Rs 560.30 - Rs 555.80 - Rs 551.30, whereas on the upside the commodity is likely to counter resistance at Rs 583.10 - Rs 589.30 - Rs 598.30.