Country's soybean output to hit highest in 4 years

It is likely to rise 60% this year because of normal monsoon

Country’s soybean output is likely to rise 60 per cent this year, because of normal monsoon and higher acreage area.

The apex Indore-based industry body the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) in its latest estimates released on Friday showed India’s total soybean output at 11.49 million tonnes. It is highest in four years, for the harvesting season 2016-17 as compared to 7.2 million tonnes reported in the previous year. In November 2016, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast India’s soybean output at 9.7 million tonnes, which was revised later to 11.5 million tonnes in December 2016.

In a sharp variation from the industry’s observation, the Union Ministry of Agriculture in its first advanced estimates forecast India’s soybean output at 14.22 million tonnes for the harvesting season 2016-17. The fourth Advanced Estimates suggest India’s total soybean output at 8.59 million tonnes for the crop year 2015-16.

“With the estimated output  for the current season at 11.49 million tonnes and carry over stock of 0.44 million tonnes, India’s total availability of soybean would remain at 11.93 million tonnes for the crop year 2016-17. Along with total soybean output of 7.2 million tonnes and carry over stock of 0.61 million tonnes, total soybean availability stood at 7.81 million tonnes for 2014-15 million tonnes,” said D N Pathak, Executive Director, SOPA.

The increase in production is due to better than expected harvest as yield is estimated at 1.01 tonnes / hectare (ha), which is higher 15 per cent higher than the previous estimates and two per cent above 5-year average.

Meanwhile, India’s Ministry of Agriculture has forecast India’s overall oilseeds production at 23.26 million tonnes for 2016-17, significantly higher from 16.59 million tonnes produced last year. This year production of Kharif oilseed is also higher by 2.33 million tonnes than the average production of last five years.

Interestingly, SOPA reported India’s total soybean meal exports at 370,000 tonnes in the October–December quarter 2016 as compared to 110,000 tonnes in the same period last year. Thus, India’s soybean meal exports have more than trebled this year on higher production from local sources following better crushing parity. Japan and Vietnam have emerged as large importer of soybean meal from India.

Average realisation, however, has declined to $370-400 a tonne this year compared to $550 a tonne last year.

Owing to higher crushing, soybean meal production in India will increase to 6.8 million tonnes this year from 6.1 million tonnes last year. Similarly, its exports for 2016-17 are estimated to rise by 50 per cent to 1.8 million tonnes,” said Ritesh Kumar Sahu, an analyst with Angel Commodities.