Jewellery demand likely to slide by 8%

Another breach of the $1,000-mark by gold could cause global jewellery demand to decline 8.24 per cent in 2008, according to the data compiled by Gold Field Mineral Services (GFMS), the London-based research agency.

The four-digit price is a good possibility, the agency said, but much would depend on the demand in India, the largest gold consumer in the world followed by China. The slowdown in the economies of these two emerging global giant may curb fresh buying.

World demand for gold jewellery jumped 6.26 per cent, or 143 tonnes, in 2007 at 2,426 tonnes as compared with 2,283 tonnes in 2006. India's imports rose 11 per cent at 776 tonnes in 2007 as against 715 tonnes in 2006.

However, high prices kept Indian jewellery consumers away from active buying in the last quarter of 2007. Demand picked up in the first quarter of this year on need-based buying during the wedding season.

"Global jewellery demand could see a substantial drop with the market having to contend with record prices along with volatility. Another break above $1,000 could see a fall of in excess of 200 tonnes in global jewellery demand this year," said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman, GFMS.

At present, gold is traded at $905.9 an ounce, a decline of 10.42 per cent from its all-time high of $1,011.25 on March 17. The intra-day record is $1,030 before liquidation brought it below $900 more recently.

GFMS estimates that global jewellery fabrication rose more than 5 per cent last year on a spurt in demand in first half.