Overseas sales may top 200 million kgs compared with 156.7 million kgs last year, Basudeb Banerjee, chairman, Tea Board of India said.
Production may rise 1.6 per cent to 960 million kgs on good rains, he said. Higher exports may cut domestic availability of the commodity and drive up costs for packaged tea sellers such as Tata Tea and Hindustan Unilever.
Tea prices at auctions gained an average 10 per cent in the first four months of this year because of rising exports and local demand.
"Things are once again really looking up for Indian exports,'' Banerjee said. "Overall world supply situation has been affected by the drought and political turmoil in Kenya.''
Tea production in Kenya, the world's biggest exporter of black tea, fell 35 per cent to 70 million kgs after hot and dry weather damaged crop, the Kenya Tea Board said in April.
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Exports to Iraq, India's biggest buyer of tea in 2006, may rebound this year after exporters resolved issues related to payments, Banerjee said without elaborating.
Exports climbed to 55.1 million kgs in the four months ended April 30, 3.4 per cent more than the 53.3 million kgs a year ago, according to the Indian Tea Association.
Monsoon rains
India's tea production may gain from an early advance of monsoon rains to most tea growing regions, the Tea Board's Banerjee said. Output in the first four months of this year rose 11.8 per cent to 170 million kgs, according to the Tea Board.
Production of high-grade Darjeeling tea was disrupted after a local political party resumed an indefinite strike demanding a separate state for the Gorkha community. Darjeeling accounts for 1 per cent of India's tea production and 8 per cent of the value of exports, according to the Tea Board.
"It's export-oriented production in the region and 87 gardens are affected,'' Banerjee said. "Foreign buyers aren't able to get to suppliers.''