Kharif on track despite hiccups

MONSOON WATCH

The early rains were expected to give some impetus to kharif sowing. But the initial momentum has been lost due to wavering government policies on agricultural commodities and the weakening monsoon.

The pace of sowing has also reportedly been affected by other factors such as a shortage of migratory labour due to the employment guarantee programme, scarcity of phosphatic and potassic fertilisers in some pockets, and the problems faced by farmers in getting bank finance after the loan waiver move.

However, the overall crop outlook for the current kharif still remains highly positive due to the prediction of normal rains in all regions of the country. Besides, the high ruling prices of agricultural commodities are expected to lead to higher plantings and increased use of yield-enhancing inputs.

The total rainfall in the country till the last week of June has been about 26 per cent above normal and most reservoirs have begun re-filling, pushing up the country's total water stock in 81 major reservoirs about 10 per above the last year's corresponding level and a good 48 per cent above the average of the previous 10 years.

The revival of the monsoon in some key agricultural belts, including the groundnut and soyabean growing tracts in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, has given a boost to the sowing of these crops. At the same time, heavy rains in parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra have created hurdles for the sowing of crops like cotton and coarse cereals.

Significantly, some weather forecast models indicate resurgence of monsoon in the north-western agricultural belt after a couple of days, though subdued rainy spell is projected to continue in the interior peninsula for some more days.

However, rice growers in Punjab and Haryana, the highest contributors of grains to the national reserves, are unhappy over the uncertainty about the paddy support price created by the ad hoc decision to pitch it at Rs 850 a quintal, against Rs 1000 recommended by the Commission on Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP).

They are still hoping for a positive final decision to enable them recover the higher labour costs for paddy transplantation because of the low arrival of migratory labour after the launching of the employment guarantee scheme in most backward districts of Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh.

The reports received from states by the agriculture ministry indicate that while the area planted with paddy and oilseed crops, notably groundnut, has so far been larger than last year, the seeding of other crops is yet to pick up.

But the sowing of cotton is nearing completion in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan though the total area has shrunk due to relatively less water released from the Chakra dam. Cotton sowing is yet to gather momentum in other states.

The planting of soyabean, which had suffered due to the slowdown in monsoon, is expected to pick up after good rains in the soya belt of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh in the last few days. Groundnut, the other major kharif oilseed, has already been planted on over 900,000 hectares this year, against about 500,000 hectares covered till this time last year.

Maize acreage was anticipated to expand substantially this year because of record high prices in the domestic and export markets, yielding good returns to the growers in the last rabbi season. However, the government's decision to ban maize exports till October-end might prove a dampener.

The water statistics collected by the Central Water Commission from 81 reservoirs indicate that 58 of them have storage of above 80 per cent of their capacity. Only four dams "� Sriramsagar (Andhra Pradesh), Bansagar (Madhya Pradesh) and Bhima and Yeldari (both Maharashtra) "� have reported nil live storage.
  

RIVER BASIN-WISE WATER STOCK IN RESERVOIRS  June 26, 2008 (Billion cumic meters)
River basin	this year	Last year	Last 10 years average
Ganga	5.08	4.64	2.90
Indus	5.51	5.16	3.03
Narmada	0.67	1.06	0.87
Tapi	1.27	1.15	1.30
Mahi	1.20	1.31	0.93
Sabarmati	0.20	0.27	0.06
Rivers of Kutch	0.04	0.02	0.03
Godavari	1.35	2.64	1.51
Krishna	7.77	6.02	4.45
East flowing rivers Mahanadi and	2.68	2.43	2.16
Cauvery and East flowing rivers	4.16	1.72	1.90
West flowing rivers of south	2.42	2.87	2.70
Total	32.33	29.27	21.82
Source: CWC

The overall water stock in most of the 12 major river basins is higher than the last year's corresponding position. The basins of Narmada, Mahi and Godavari rivers are the only exception.