Kharif output may rise 1.3% to record 112 mt

MONSOON WATCH

Buoyed up by the well-distributed and 3 per cent above-normal rainfall in the extended monsoon season this year, the agriculture ministry has put out optimistic projections of likely kharif production.

The total foodgrain output in the current kharif has been put at a record 112.24 million tonnes, a growth of 1.6 per cent over last season's production when the cumulative monsoon rainfall till mid-September was 2 per cent below normal.

Crops such as maize, cotton, soybean and sugarcane are estimated to scale new output peaks. The prices of most of these crops and some pulses, notably moong whose output is likely to be higher than that of last year's, have already begun displaying bearish tendencies.

Significantly, the country's key agricultural belt in the north-west is the only region that has remained rain-deficient. But, the monsoon has not yet bid adieu to this region though it should have done so by now.

The weather office expects some more rainfall beginning September 21 in this region. Over 80 per cent of the cropland here is irrigated and despite the water levels in reservoirs being marginally below average, there is yet no paucity of irrigation water.

Consequently, like elsewhere in the country, the crop yields from this region are expected to be normal or above normal. Harvesting of cotton has already begun in Punjab and parts of Rajasthan. The output is projected to touch a new record despite the moderate attack of mealy bug and some other pests.

Cotton production is also forecasted by the agriculture ministry to hit a record 22.94 million bales, up about 1.1 per cent from last year's 22.70 million bales.

Good production is attributed largely to the use of transgenic Bt-cotton hybrid seeds on over 60 per cent of the acreage. In Punjab, over 80 per cent of the acreage was plated with Bt-cotton seeds this year.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the cumulative monsoon waterfall till September 12 was 822 mm, about 3 per cent above the normal of 798.5 mm. Of the total 36 meteorological sub-divisions, as many as 30 have received either excess or normal rainfall.

The 6 rain-deficient sub-divisions are (deficiency in brackets): Punjab (-23 per cent), Haryana and Delhi (-32 per cent), west Uttar Pradesh (-38 per cent), east Uttar Pradesh (-21 per cent), east Madhya Pradesh (-31 per cent) and Himachal Pradesh (-34 per cent). A mid-tropospheric westerly trough over this region is likely to cause widespread rainfall in the region in the next four to five days.

Meteorological analysis of the IMD suggests scattered to fairly widespread rainfall in most parts of the country. The Met office has warned about isolated heavy showers in south Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, south coastal Orissa, and Andaman and Nicobar islands. However, rainfall in south-peninsula is predicted to decrease in the next couple of days.

Indeed, the regional distribution of rainfall is reflected also in the water stock in reservoirs in different river basins. Of the country's 12 major river basins, only dams in the Ganges and the Indus basins have below normal water storage. All other river basins hold water stocks substantially above the long-period average levels.

According to the data collected by the Central Water Commission, the reservoirs in the Ganges basin had a total water stock of 14.95 billion cubic metres (BCM) on September 13, which is about 4.21 per cent below the previous 10 years' average storage of 15.61 BCM.

Similarly, the water stock in the Indus basin is also marginally down by about 2.17 per cent. However, storage is still deemed by experts to be sufficient to meet the needs of the irrigation and hydel power sectors.

However, the dams in the Kutch area and Sabarmati basin are holding over 160 per cent excess water stocks. The water storage in the agriculturally crucial and politically sensitive Cauvery basin, including the other east-flowing rivers in the south, is also substantially higher than normal. It might keep the inter-state water rows in low ebb.

Reports received by the agriculture ministry indicate the sowing of most main-season kharif crops, barring paddy, is over and have exceeded last year's levels. Area shortfalls have been reported only in crops like jowar, jute a, mesta, some minor oilseeds and pulses.

Agro-meteorologists have advised farmers to postpone irrigation and fertiliser application in areas where rains are expected in the next few days.