Kharif prospects safe

MONSOON WATCH

Though the distribution of rainfall has been highly uneven this season, causing floods in some areas and drought in others, the overall kharif crop prospects are fairly satisfactory.

While sowing of paddy and pulses is still apace, that of oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane is nearing completion. The standing crops are mostly in good shape though moderate disease and pest attacks have been reported from some places.

The concern is mainly about groundnut, among oilseeds, and moth bean among pulses as the area under both these crops has shrunk considerably because of the paucity of rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan in July.

The cumulative monsoon rainfall in whole country thus far may be only marginally (2 per cent) below normal, but the regional spread is quiet skewed.

The main concentration of monsoon has been in the central India, causing 21 per cent excess rainfall there till August 16.

All other regions experienced below normal rainfall, with the deficit in the north-east being as high 27 per cent. On the whole, 22 meteorological sub-divisions have received normal or above normal rainfall and 14 below normal.

The subdivision-wise rainfall data makes ill-distribution all the more clear. While central Maharashtra and Gujarat recorded 83 per cent above normal rainfall, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and north-eastern states received 43 per cent below average waterfall.

The rainfall paucity in some key agricultural states has also been fairly significant, being 30 to 35 per cent in west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and adjoining areas; and more than 20 per cent in Punjab, Bihar and Rayalseema.

The Andaman, Nicobar and Lakshadweep islands also experienced deficient rainfall though that does not matter much for agriculture.

The silver lining, however, is that eastern states and Bihar are expected to get good showers in next few days which might mitigate rainfall deficiency and facilitate planting of late paddy and some pulses and vegetable crops.

The National Central for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) today held out the possibility of increase in rainfall activity in Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh in next two days.

Besides, its model suggested likely formation of another low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal around August 28, which may shift the eastern end of the monsoon trough southwards, causing enhanced rainfall in north-eastern states in 4 to 5 days.

Reports from states on kharif sowing received by the agriculture ministry indicate that by August 12, paddy had been planted on about 30.5 million hectares, some 1.6 million hectares more than last year's corresponding position of 28.9 million hectares. The sowing is still underway in southern and north-eastern states, while it is over in the north.

However, the coverage under coarse cereals is marginally lower this year with 34.2 million hectares sown to these crops till August 24 against 35.5 million hectares planted last year.

The shortfall is mainly owing to lesser sowing of bajra and jowar, mainly in Rajasthan and some southern states. The area under maize has increased slightly to 7 million hectares against last year's 6.6 million hectares.

Among commercial crops, cotton area has expanded by about half a million hectares to 8.44 million hectares and that of sugarcane by about 0.16 million hectares to 4.45 million hectares.

The planting of pulses, which had tended to lag behind earlier, has picked up following the recession of floods. The total area coverage till August 18 was reckoned at 9.84 million hectares, some 1 per cent higher than last year's corresponding figure of 9.73 million hectares.

But area under moth bean has shrunk because this crop could not be planted owing to prolonged dry spell in north-eastern Rajasthan.

In oilseeds, the main area shortfall, estimated at over 20 per cent, is in groundnut and castor because of poor crop sowing in parts of Andhra Pradesh where there was hardly any rainfall in July.

The sowing of soyabean, sunflower and sesamum has been relatively better. On the whole, the oilseed crops have been planted on about 15.2 million hectares this year against 16.2 million hectares last year.

Total water stored in 76 major reservoirs was estimated on August 18 at 98.5 billion cubic metres (BCM), about 9 per cent higher than last year's corresponding level of 90.2 BCM and whopping 46 per cent above past 10 year's average position.