The delay in the withdrawal of the monsoon is expected to benefit crops in the current kharif as well as in the ensuing rabi season. However, the projected increase in the intensity of rains in the north-eastern states may heighten the threat of floods in the Brahmaputra and other rivers, adversely affecting the standing crops.
Rehabilitation of agriculture in the vast tracts ravaged by the Kosi river in Bihar is anticipated to take a long time as farm operations cannot begin for at least a month after the flood waters clear out.
The good news is that the area under rice, the main kharif food crop, as well as oilseeds have already surged significantly ahead of last year’s level and the numbers might look up further as more data on crop sowing pours in from the states.
However, no improvement can be expected in the status of pulses sowing, where the area has shrunk by around 2 million hectares, or over 15 per cent, from last year’s 11.7 million hectares.
Among commercial crops, the area planted under cotton has reached close to the last year’s level of 9 million hectares and the crop condition is stated to be good. But, sugarcane is set to lose some acreage due to diversion of land to other crops, notably paddy and oilseeds.
Normally, the south-west monsoon begins to withdraw from the western-most part of Rajasthan from September 1. It withdraws from the bulk of the north-western region by the third week of September. But this year, fortunately, the withdrawal is yet to start.
In fact, the weather office is predicting formation of a western trough over north-west India between September 5 and 8, which will help sustain the monsoon and bring more rains in this agriculturally-important belt. Rainfall is projected to increase also in the eastern, central and southern regions.
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The cumulative monsoon rainfall in the country till the end of August was estimated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to be just around 2 per cent below normal. The region-wise distribution of rains, too, has been satisfactory for agriculture.
While the north-western region has received 16 per cent above-normal rainfall till August-end, the other parts of the country have remained rain-deficient, though marginally. The deficiency is reckoned at 8 per cent in central India, 5 per cent in the North-East and just 4 per cent in the southern peninsula.
The main concern is, however, regarding the Marathwada region, where rainfall deficiency is as much as 44 per cent, and north-eastern Karnataka, which has received 25 per cent below-normal rainfall. Though the Vidarbha region has remained deficient by around 20 per cent, the agricultural situation in the area has not been hit hard.
In the Kosi-ravaged areas of Bihar, farmers have been advised by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) to transplant older paddy seedlings (about 40-days old) in the fields after the flood waters recede.
If it takes too long for the fields to become available for farm operations, then they should plan only for the early sowing of rabi crops such as gram, urad, lentil and potato. In the main rabi season, winter crops such as wheat, mustard, maize and sunflower can be grown in fields vacated by the flood waters.
Some incidence of the dreaded sheath blight disease of paddy has been seen in Punjab. The Ludhiana-based Punjab Agricultural University has advised farmers to take timely pest-control measures as the plants affected by this disease normally fail to bear grains.
Mealy bug pest has also been spotted on cotton fields in some states but the infestation has not yet crossed the economic threshold.
For the government grappling with a double-digit inflation, the reassuring news is on the oilseeds front.
The total area under these important crops, which had contributed to high inflation, has exceeded last year’s level by about 1.65 per cent. Soyabean acreage has expanded to over 9.52 million hectares, some 9 per cent higher than last year’s 8.72 million hectares.
Consequently, the prices of edible oil have softened in the last few weeks. In fact, the prices of soya oil are set to remain subdued, thanks to favourable domestic crop outlook and cues from the international market, which has also entered a bearish phase.
| AREA SOWN TILL AUGUST-END (lakh hectares) | ||
| Crop | This year | Last year |
| Rice | 344.8 | 329.5 |
| Jowar | 28.0 | 33.5 |
| Bajra | 74.8 | 81.7 |
| MaizeA | 69.5 | 72.8 |
| Total of coarse cereals | 191.6 | 207.9 |
| Groundnut | 50.3 | 51.5 |
| Soyabean | 95.2 | 87.2 |
| Total of oilseeds | 172.9 | 170.1 |
| Arhar | 33.3 | 37.5 |
| Urad | 19.8 | 26.2 |
| Moong | 22.8 | 31.2 |
| Total of pulses | 97.8 | 116.9 |
| Cotton | 89.1 | 90.9 |
| Sugarcane | 44.1 | 53.0 |
| Jute | 7.4 | 8.3 |
| Source: agriculture ministry | ||
However, total water storage in the country’s 81 major reservoirs is still considerably lower than last year’s corresponding level, though not so when compared with the long-period average storage.
The total water stock, as on August 28, was estimated by the Central Water Commission at 95.80 billion cubic metres (BCM), which is about 11.24 per cent higher than the normal of 86.12 BCM for this date, but significantly lower than la\st year’ corresponding level of 107.23 BCM.
The prediction of more rains, especially in the southern peninsula in the coming days, may help improve the situation.