The slow progress of the southwest monsoon is unlikely to affect the overall paddy sowing area in this kharif season, say experts. Rainfall has been deficient by about five per cent, which is estimated to have curtailed the paddy sowing area less by six per cent than this time last year. But overall acreage is expected to increase with the progress of the monsoon.
The Union agriculture ministry had forecast the total paddy acreage area to expand to 42 million hectares (ha) in 2010-11 as against 36.1 million ha last year, which experts believe is too ambitious.
Since the progress of monsoon is very slow, the acreage area may rise by one or two per cent, not more, said Vijay Setia, President of the All India Rice Exporters’ Association. However, he agrees with the official estimate of an output rise by 15 per cent, compared to last year.
| GOOD SIGNS | ||
| Year | Production (mn tn) | Yield (kg/ha) |
| 2003-04 | 88.53 | 2,078 |
| 2007-08 | 96.69 | 2,202 |
| 2008-09 | 99.15 | 2,186 |
| 2009-10 | 87.60 | 2,425 |
| Source : Agriculture ministry | ||
The US Department of Agriculture had estimated India’s total rice output to rise by 16 per cent to 99 million tonnes on normal monsoon expectations.
Last year, total rice output fell 12 per cent to 87.5 mt, owing to a poor monsoon, from a bumper 99.2 mt in 2008-09. About 80-85 per cent of paddy is sown in the kharif season and 15-20 per cent in the rabi season. India is the world’s second-largest rice producer.
The Union agriculture ministry says the total area sown was 1.097 million hectares (ha) as on June 18 (375,000 ha more than the previous week), as compared to 1.173 million ha on the same date last year, about 6.5 per cent less. However, sowing is still in a very early stage.
Among states where more area has been planted since last year are Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Bengal.
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Monsoon rainfall begins in most paddy growing areas of North India in the last week of June, when farmers normally commence the trans-planting of paddy sprouts.
The intermittent pre-monsoon stormy rain in states like Punjab, Haryana, UP, Bihar and West Bengal prepared the ground well to sow paddy seeds, for these require some moisture for germination.
As the sprouts grow, the requirement of water increases. Paddy is a rain-fed crop, which requires two to three inches of water-logging in the field through the 90-120 day period for bumper production.
Too early
“It is premature to predict the paddy sowing area at this point, as the entire season is ahead. Paddy sowing will depend on overall rainfall and their distribution. But we can assume that overall sowing will recover as the days progress,” said Sharad Maru, president of the Grain, Rice & Oilseed Merchants Association.
V K Chaturvedi, managing director of Usher Agro, a Mumbai-based rice and wheat miller, said: “Sowing has started for only the summer crop, for harvesting in October, while the seasonal paddy is sown in late June-early July. Hence, sowing for the kharif season is yet to begin to set a trend for the entire year.”
However, a part of the area of sugarcane and oilseeds will be diverted, especially in central and western states, to paddy due to lower realisation in competing crops, Chaturvedi said.
There has also been an increase of Rs 50 a quintal in the minimum support price (MSP). At the beginning of the season, the government raised MSP for common variety rice to Rs 1,000 per qtl and for the Grade-A variety to Rs 1,030 per qtl for the 2010-11 season, against Rs 950 per quintal during the previous season.