Maharashtra sugar output may fall to 5-year low

Drought and crop diversification across the Marathwada region might bring down sugar production in Maharashtra to 5.2 million tonnes (mt), one of the lowest production estimates in the past five years. The projection report in July 2016-17 shows the sugar production at 5.5 mt, compared with last season’s 8.4 mt.

According to estimates by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (Isma), in Maharashtra, sugarcane was grown on one million hectares in 2015-16. In the current season, area under sugarcane has shrunk to 780,000 hectares. Isma estimates Maharashtra’s sugar yield in 2016-17 to be 6.1 mt against 8.4 mt in 2015-16.

Isma expects a national output of 23.26 mt of sugar this season, down from 25.1 mt in 2015-16. Deficient rainfalls in the past two years prompted the state agriculture department to forecast 45 per cent of decline in sugar output this year at 5.2 mt for the upcoming season beginning October 2016 against 8.4 mt of sugar output in 2015-16. Maharashtra’s cane cultivation area has declined in 2016-17 sugar season, which is mainly due to poor rainfall and lesser water availability for irrigation. The state has a daily crushing capacity of 560,000 tonnes of sugarcane, while the actual production is 5.5 mt. In 2015-16, as many as 177 sugar mills had crushed 74 mt tonnes of sugarcane. The average requirement of sugarcane for efficiently running all the mills is 94 mt.

Against the cane area of 1.05 million hectares in 2015-16, the cane area is expected to come down to 780,000 hectares in 2016-17. Sugar production is, therefore, estimated to be 6.15 mt in 2016-17 crushing season against 8.41 mt in the previous season.

Isma has said nearly five million hectares have come under sugar cane cultivation in the country. This is 5.5 per cent less than the area under sugar cane in 2015-16. Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka are the major sugar production contributors. This year, Uttar Pradesh has grown sugar cane on 2.3 million hectares, representing a marginal increase over the 2015-16 acreage. It is estimated to produce 7.5 mt of sugar in 2016-17, up from 6.8 mt in 2015-16. Sugar output in Karnataka is likely to fall to 3.2 mt from 4 mt in 2015-16.

“Above-normal rainfalls will certainly benefit standing sugarcane crops for the current season. But, the actual assessment is yet to be done on its impact on sugar output. There are some regions in which monsoon rainfalls have been average. In some part of the state, yield will improve only 2-5 per cent,” said Sanjeev Babar, managing director, Maharashtra State Federation of Sugar Factories.

In Maharashtra, there are a total of 178 functional sugar factories , including 99 in the co-operative sector and 79 in the private sector. According to an estimate, the co-operative sugar factories were functional in 2015-16, of which 30-40 might begin the sugarcane crushing season this year due to a shortage of raw sugarcane.

Nationally, with an estimated opening balance on October 1, 2016 of 7.1 mt, and estimated production of 2.3 mt, sugar availability during the 12 months of next season will be 30.36 mt, enough to meet the domestic sugar consumption requirement of 26 mt in 2016-17.