 "Markets: 15 things to expect in 2015")
It is a new year, when the young bull promises to become an adult. A new year when sentiment is to be crystallised into reality. A year for market regulator U K Sinha to leave his mark on Dalal Street before wrapping up his five-year stint. As we try and cobble a list of 15 things you can expect in the market, there are things investors would ideally want to happen and things we actually expect to happen. Here’s a cocktail of both:
INDIAN FINANCIAL CODE: Some top minds in the country worked to put together a comprehensive legislation that would help us make a better sense of the world of finance, with better safety for the small guy. It has been gathering dust for over a year. Let the new year bring it to life.
UNIFIED REGULATOR: With the Forward Markets Commission coming under its fold, the Union finance ministry now has administrative powers over most of the financial sector regulators – Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), Reserve Bank of India, Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India and Pension Funds Regulatory and Development Authority. It is time to bring all these under one super-regulator.
SOME DILUTION IN CLAUSE 49: This clause in the listing agreement deals with the provisions on corporate governance. Though this is not going to be pleasant for small investors, some dilution or realignment with the new Companies Act seems inevitable with respect to related-party transactions.
NEW FRAMEWORK FOR IPOS: The much-amended Initial Public Offering framework is again likely to be tweaked. As the primary market refuses to wake up, Sebi seems to be getting desperate to see it revive. However, that adage which applies to investors does so to the regulator, too: The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
SENSEX AT 30,000: Talking of irrationality, thankfully, it was on the right side in 2014 for the secondary markets. Will it continue in the new year? Well, we hope at least 30,000 is not a tall order. That’s only 10 per cent from where we will close 2014. We’re happy to grant you trolling rights if we don’t get there. What the government has done so far doesn’t inspire us to stick our necks out for bigger numbers. Not yet.
E-COMMERCE IPOS: E-commerce has been the darling of big-bracket private funds. But the small guy on the street has been itching to join the party. With some local players becoming big enough, you might finally order for delivery of a hot stock. Only, don’t expect any great discount.
BSE LISTING: This might not be as exciting but Asia’s oldest bourse has been waiting for long to bring up its IPO, in the works for a little over two years. Maybe the old BSE shareholders will finally get their exit this year.
REGIONAL EXCHANGES: Let us hope these relics of the past are finally wound up in the new year, with proper migration of companies to national bourses and adequate redressal of investor issues.
CLEAN AND LIQUID SME EXCHANGES: These are a study in contrast, with one hyperactive and the other dormant. A middle path needs to be discovered in the new year.
ACCOUNTABLE QNALYSIS: The framework governing research analysts came into place in December. From May, these will acquire real teeth, with vested interests not able to take investors for a ride so easily.
SURPRISES IN AGMS: The full impact of the new corporate governance regime, howsoever diluted, will be seen in its full avatar in the new year. Be prepared for some of your favourite stocks getting upset by voting surprises.
CLOSURE FOR NATIONAL SPOT EXCHANGE INVESTORS: Though it happened in a different asset class, several entities, including brokers, investors and advisors, hit by the Rs 5,600-crore scam were closely associated with the equity market. A quick closure to this mess in the new year would be a boost for sentiment and activity.
PENDING CASES OF THE BIG BOYS: The pending proceedings against Reliance Industries in the 2007 case and court/tribunal matters of Sahara and DLF should be brought to an end, at least this year. Cases dragging on for years cause an overhang on stocks, affecting investors.
MORE JAILBIRDS: Sebi has begun a crackdown on illegal money raising. It has also trained its new powers to jail people on one defaulter. Will there be more? Quite likely. The list of people who have defaulted on penalties due to Sebi is a long one. These people be better prepared with the penalty amount or learn counting the bars.
REAL DIVESTMENT: This has been on the wish list every new year. The government has hardly been able to fulfill it. Sometimes it is Life Insurance Corporation that comes to bail out and sometimes it’s cross-holdings by public sector undertakings. Let the new government make it a resolve to bring a bumper disinvestment sale that leaves a smile on everyone’s face – the investors, bankers, the company and the officials.
And, a New Year Bonus — a ‘big bang’ Budget. If all the hype and hoopla of the past seven months have to translate into something positive, the finance minister has to summon his best resources to present a truly inspiring Budget. That will be the make or break moment for 2015.
INDIAN FINANCIAL CODE: Some top minds in the country worked to put together a comprehensive legislation that would help us make a better sense of the world of finance, with better safety for the small guy. It has been gathering dust for over a year. Let the new year bring it to life.
UNIFIED REGULATOR: With the Forward Markets Commission coming under its fold, the Union finance ministry now has administrative powers over most of the financial sector regulators – Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), Reserve Bank of India, Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India and Pension Funds Regulatory and Development Authority. It is time to bring all these under one super-regulator.
SOME DILUTION IN CLAUSE 49: This clause in the listing agreement deals with the provisions on corporate governance. Though this is not going to be pleasant for small investors, some dilution or realignment with the new Companies Act seems inevitable with respect to related-party transactions.
NEW FRAMEWORK FOR IPOS: The much-amended Initial Public Offering framework is again likely to be tweaked. As the primary market refuses to wake up, Sebi seems to be getting desperate to see it revive. However, that adage which applies to investors does so to the regulator, too: The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
SENSEX AT 30,000: Talking of irrationality, thankfully, it was on the right side in 2014 for the secondary markets. Will it continue in the new year? Well, we hope at least 30,000 is not a tall order. That’s only 10 per cent from where we will close 2014. We’re happy to grant you trolling rights if we don’t get there. What the government has done so far doesn’t inspire us to stick our necks out for bigger numbers. Not yet.
E-COMMERCE IPOS: E-commerce has been the darling of big-bracket private funds. But the small guy on the street has been itching to join the party. With some local players becoming big enough, you might finally order for delivery of a hot stock. Only, don’t expect any great discount.
BSE LISTING: This might not be as exciting but Asia’s oldest bourse has been waiting for long to bring up its IPO, in the works for a little over two years. Maybe the old BSE shareholders will finally get their exit this year.
REGIONAL EXCHANGES: Let us hope these relics of the past are finally wound up in the new year, with proper migration of companies to national bourses and adequate redressal of investor issues.
CLEAN AND LIQUID SME EXCHANGES: These are a study in contrast, with one hyperactive and the other dormant. A middle path needs to be discovered in the new year.
ACCOUNTABLE QNALYSIS: The framework governing research analysts came into place in December. From May, these will acquire real teeth, with vested interests not able to take investors for a ride so easily.
SURPRISES IN AGMS: The full impact of the new corporate governance regime, howsoever diluted, will be seen in its full avatar in the new year. Be prepared for some of your favourite stocks getting upset by voting surprises.
CLOSURE FOR NATIONAL SPOT EXCHANGE INVESTORS: Though it happened in a different asset class, several entities, including brokers, investors and advisors, hit by the Rs 5,600-crore scam were closely associated with the equity market. A quick closure to this mess in the new year would be a boost for sentiment and activity.
PENDING CASES OF THE BIG BOYS: The pending proceedings against Reliance Industries in the 2007 case and court/tribunal matters of Sahara and DLF should be brought to an end, at least this year. Cases dragging on for years cause an overhang on stocks, affecting investors.
MORE JAILBIRDS: Sebi has begun a crackdown on illegal money raising. It has also trained its new powers to jail people on one defaulter. Will there be more? Quite likely. The list of people who have defaulted on penalties due to Sebi is a long one. These people be better prepared with the penalty amount or learn counting the bars.
REAL DIVESTMENT: This has been on the wish list every new year. The government has hardly been able to fulfill it. Sometimes it is Life Insurance Corporation that comes to bail out and sometimes it’s cross-holdings by public sector undertakings. Let the new government make it a resolve to bring a bumper disinvestment sale that leaves a smile on everyone’s face – the investors, bankers, the company and the officials.
And, a New Year Bonus — a ‘big bang’ Budget. If all the hype and hoopla of the past seven months have to translate into something positive, the finance minister has to summon his best resources to present a truly inspiring Budget. That will be the make or break moment for 2015.