After a strong closing on Friday, stock market indices are expected to rise further in the coming week. The main trigger, according to market experts, would be the Union Budget.
Deven Choksey, managing director, K R Choksey said, “While the larger trigger would be the Budget, within the market one could look for favourable triggers like some clues regarding settlement in the Reliance case, because the stock has the potential to drag down or lift up the indices.”
On Friday, the CNX Nifty closed above the psychological level of 4,350 points. “Monday would be a crucial day. If the Nifty crosses 4,550 points, expect it to touch 4,700 during the week,” said Amitabh Chakraborty, head (equities), Religare Securities.
Internationally, the key indicators would be the US employment figures and auto sales. On Thursday, the national unemployment rate and the number of jobs lost in June will be declared. Both these numbers are expected to rise. Even the auto sales numbers are likely to continue declining.
While, these numbers may not augur well for the world markets, India is more likely to be influenced by the impending Budget. There are a lot of expectations. For instance, the markets would give its thumbs up to any divestment plans that would bring down the fiscal deficit. Similarly, higher focus on infrastructure and a push towards public private partnership would boos t sentiments.
According to Choksey, the Nifty could trade in the range of 4,200-4,526 in the first half of the week. The shift could be on the higher side to 4,650-4,700 in the second half.
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The market was listless during the major part of last week. Even the futures & options rollover was low, indicating that traders wanted to stay light and did not want to aggressively take any position before the Budget.
However, the first day of the July series on Friday, saw a breakout. The Nifty rose 134 or 3.15 per cen oved investor sentiment significantly during the week were Unitech’s QIP of $575 million (Rs 2,700 crore approx.) and Mahindra Holidays’ initial public offering that was oversubscribed almost 10 times.
“Even the monsoon threat seems to have more or less blown over. Signals are not too worrisome now,” added Choksey.