| The market gained significant ground and consolidated just below a key resistance on Friday. |
| The Nifty closed at 4214.5 with a week-on-week gain of 3.38 per cent. The Sensex was ahead by 3.68 per cent closing at 14303 points. The Defty was up 4.3 per cent as the rupee continued to harden. |
| The BankNifty gained an enormous 10.7 per cent while the CNX IT was up by just 0.36 per cent "� actually creditable given the rupee's bull-run. Breadth was excellent with advances comfortably outnumbering declines and volumes were high towards the weekend. |
| Outlook: The market is very close to making an upside breakout from a four-week trading range but it hasn't made a confirmed breakout. It will either cross to new highs above 4250 within the next two weeks. Or it will drop back to 4050 levels. The indications are bullish rather than bearish. |
| Rationale: Higher volumes associated to higher prices and better breadth always offers a bullish perspective. |
| The mutual funds have been consistent bullish while the FIIs have booked profits at higher levels before buying heavily on Friday. |
| The induction of 31 new underlying to the F&O segment has meant higher volumes in the spot markets as well. It's likely that this will lead to a breakout which would be confirmed by a new high. |
| Counter-view: Part of the rally was induced by sheer relief that the US Fed and the BoJ have chosen to maintain status quo on rates. But more rupee appreciation is on the cards and this is not necessarily a bullish factor. Banks must be due for a burst of profit-taking. |
| Bulls & Bears: One of the factors that makes it very likely that the indices will rise to new highs is that a fair number of key stocks have made recent upwards breakouts. |
| The big story was the bank sector which appeared to be enthused by a combination of decent results from SBI as well as movement on the credit derivative front and speculation about a likely burst of equity issues. |
| Among banks, HDFC Bank, SBI, ICICI, PNB and OBC all registered very strong moves. But this sector has a habit of sharp directional changes. |
| Among other stocks, ABB, IDFC, RIL, IPCL, Jaiprakash Associates, Ingersoll, Moser, McDowell, Jindal Drilling and Prithvi Info seemed quite strong. Bajaj saw a sell off as family rows made the headlines. |
| MICRO TECHNICALS |
| HDFC Bank Current price: 1070 Target price: 1100 |
| The stock has completed a breakout on high volumes. It's likely to run into resistance between 1100-1110 and probably settle into a trading range around those levels. Keep a stop at 1050 and go long. Book partial profits above 1090. |
| Japiprakash Associates Current price: 671 Target price: 695 |
| The stock completed a bullish formation with a high-volume breakout. It has a target projection till around the 695 level and it could move a bit further. Keep a stop at 655 and go long. |
| McDowell Current price: 1057 Target price: 1150 |
| The stock made a big breakout at 970 on high volumes on Thursday. It has a likely target of 1150 "� it is almost halfway there. Keep a stop at 1025 and go long. Movements in the F&O segment suggest that the target could be a conservative estimate. |
| Prithvi Info Current price: 314 Target price: 325, 350 |
| The stock has made a breakout on a massive volume expansion. Th minimum target projection is still 325 and the stock will run into resistance at those levels. However, if it closes above 325 it is very likely to move till the 350. Keep a stop at 303 and go long. |
| RIL Current price: 1698 Target price: 1735 |
| RIL has made a move to successive new highs but it somewhat low on momentum. It's difficult to project targets with such a move but it should reach 1735 within the settlement. |
| Just keep a trailing stop loss at 1675 and go long. Move the stop up 10 units for every 10-unit advance in the stock price. Book only partial profits at 1735. |
| (The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.) |
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