3:24 PM
HIGHLIGHTS BofA Merrill Lynch June Fund Manager Survey · Average cash balance ticks down to 4.8% in June, from 4.9% in May, but still above the 10-year average of 4.5%
· Allocation to US equities climbs 16ppt to net 1% overweight, the first time investors surveyed have gone overweight in 15 months
· 64% of respondents think the US has the most favorable outlook for profits, a 17-year high; all other regions have net negative profit outlooks
· A record 42% of investors surveyed say companies are over levered, far exceeding the 32% peak in 2008; overall an all-time high of net 34% think corporate balance sheets are overleveraged
· June rotation shows investors are selling cyclical plays (banks, emerging markets and Eurozone equities) in favor of defensive sectors and US equities
· When asked what catalyst is most likely to stop Fed tightening, 69% of investors surveyed state domestic reasons (lower inflation, higher unemployment, Fed independence); 23% cited emerging market contagion or a debt crisis in the peripheral EU
· This month, the most commonly cited tail risk to the markets is a trade war (31%), followed by a Fed/ECB hawkish policy mistake (26%) and a Euro/EM debt crisis (23%); trade tensions have been the dominant macro concern for investors in 2018
· Allocation to commodities hits a new 8-year high, rising 1ppt to net 7% overweight, the highest since April 2012 when WTI was $105/bbl
· “Long FAANG+BAT” remains the most crowded trade identified by investors for the fifth straight month and most crowded trade outright since “Long USD” in January 2017; the top three in June are rounded out by “Short US Treasuries” (16%) and “Long USD” (9%)
· Expectations for faster global growth hold steadywith just net 1% of investors indicating they think the global economy will strengthen over the next 12 months, barely above the boom/bust threshold and still at their lowest level since February 2016