| The market went through a massive rise on low volumes. Momentum slowed on the final session of the week but the Sensex closed at 13,285.93 points for a gain of 6.88 per cent. |
| The Nifty closed at 3,861.05 per cent for a gain of 6.99 per cent. The Defty was up 8.2 per cent reflecting the relief at dollar rates remaining unchanged. |
| Breadth was good apart from the low volumes. Rising shares comfortably outnumbered losing shares "� this was reflected in the BSE 500 performance of plus 5.88 per cent. |
| The Bank Nifty rose an extraordinary 12.78 per cent while the CNX IT delivered 4.08 per cent. FIIs were net buyers through the week but Indian funds remained net sellers. |
| Outlook: Despite the apparent return of confidence this could be a "dead-cat bounce" inside a bearish market. |
| The market has moved to a zone of strong resistance and settlement considerations will play a large part in the trading mood of this week. Expect prices to move with great daily volatility but staying within the range of 3,725-3,925. A move outside this range would be significant. |
| Rationale: The low volume recovery pattern is a danger signal. However, the intermediate downtrend that started on February 9 is over "� we now have a pattern of higher tops. If the market does penetrate 3,925 and goes into the April settlement above that mark, this will start looking quite hopeful. |
| Counter-view: The likeliest pattern next week is range-trading which will leave us no wiser than before. We are still two weeks from the first annual results so the rumour quotient will be very high. Expectations are by and large, good so there is actually more room for disappointment than for upsides. |
| Bulls & Bears: While plenty of stocks did exceedingly well through the first four sessions, most lost momentum on day five. A select group of stocks seem capable of staying bullish through the settlement. |
| However, there are no major bearish signals as such. The bulls next week are likely to include Bharti, BHEL, Cipla, Dabur, Hindustan Lever, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti, Sail, Aurobindo Pharma, Corporation Bank and Kotak Mahindra. Reliance is interestingly poised on the cusp of a resistance. If it gains, it will be a major driver of market sentiment. |
| MICRO TECHNICALS |
| Aurobindo Pharma Current Price: 627 Target Price: 665 |
| The stock has started firming up off a bottom in the 585 range on the basis of rumours about overseas acquisitions. It has a potential target is the range of 665. Keep a stop at 610 and go long. Book profits above 660. |
| BHEL Current Price: 2271.7 Target Price: 2345 |
| The stock has climbed steadily on volume expansion. It has a likely minimum target of above 2,350 and a potential target in the range of 2,470. The first reliable support is at 2,195. Keep a stop at 2,190 and go long. Book 75 per cent profits at 2,345. |
| Larsen & Toubro Current Price: 1626 Target Price: 1665 |
| The stock has moved up from 1,475 levels in the past five sessions with excellent volumes. It has a potential upside of about 1,750, which would take it to new highs. More likely, it will run into resistance and stall at about 1,665. Keep a stop at 1,610 and go long. Book profits above 1,660. |
| Mahindra & Mahindra Current Price: 796.8 Target Price: 845 |
| The stock has risen smartly on a volume expansion. It has a projected target of about 845 and interim resistance at around 820. Keep a stop at 780 and go long. It would be prudent to book partial profits at about 820 because that is likely to be a serious but not insurmountable barrier. |
| Kotak Mahindra Current Price: 461.4 Target Price: 495 |
| There was a surge on Friday with a major volume expansion. There's room for the uptrend to continue till the 495 levels. Keep a stop at 450 and go long. Book partial profits at above 480. |
| (The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.) |
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