MCX Gold can fall sharply if it breaks 100-WMA; Silver needs to win 100-DMA

The MCX Gold October futures 100-WMA is placed at Rs 48,900, sustained trade below which can trigger a 10 per cent slide. Silver futures need to conquer multiple hurdles.

The MCX Gold futures cracked heavily in trades last week, but somehow managed to hold the 100-WMA support. In case, the yellow metal breaks the 100-WMA support, a sharper fall of around 10 per cent cannot be ruled out, indicates the daily chart. Meanwhile, Silver futures despite the recovery need to conquer multiple hurdles on the upside for the overall trend to turn favourable.

Gold

Bias: Negative

Last Close: Rs 49,334

Support: Rs 48,900

Resistance: Rs 50,025; Rs 51,000

After a 2.3 per cent fall last week, the MCX Gold October futures were seen testing support around the 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs 48,900-odd level. The commodity has now ended below its 20-WMA and 50-WMA placed at Rs 51,000 and Rs 50,025, for the first time since January 30, 2022.

The trading zone of Rs 48,900 to Rs 51,000 is crucial for Gold futures going ahead. Unless and until Gold does not conquer 20-WMA, the upside is likely to remain limited for the yellow metal. 

On the other hand, break and sustained trade below its 100-WMA, can open-up the possibility of a sharper fall towards the 200-WMA, which currently stands at Rs 44,250.

The key momentum oscillators, both, on the daily and the weekly chart are in favour of the bears.

As per the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week Gold October futures may trade in a broad range of Rs 48,200 to Rs 50,460; with support expected around Rs 48,930 - Rs 48,635 - Rs 48,420 and resistance likely around Rs 49,735 - Rs 50,030 - Rs 50,245. 

On Monday, MCX Gold 1 kg futures are likely to seek support around Rs 49,125 - Rs 49,055 - Rs 48,990, while on the upside the October contract is likely to face resistance around Rs 49,545 - Rs 49,610 - Rs 49,675.

Similarly, MCX Gold Mini October futures are likely to seek support around Rs 49,220 - Rs 49,155 - Rs 49,095; the contract could face resistance around Rs 49,625 - Rs 49,690 - Rs 49,750.

Silver

Bias: Cautiously Optimistic

Last Close: Rs 56,729

Resistance: Rs 57,850; Rs 58,380

Support: Rs 56,010; Rs 54,720

The MCX Silver futures bounced back, and more importantly managed to sustain above the 20- and 50-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for five trading sessions in a row. Given this development, the near term bias is said to be cautiously optimistic, as long as the 20-DMA at Rs 54,720 holds. The 50-DMA stands at Rs 56,010.

If the commodity fails to hold on to these support levels, a re-test of the lower-end of the Bollinger Band cannot be ruled out, thus indicating a downside possibility to Rs 51,600-level.

On the upside, Silver December futures are likely to face stiff resistance around Rs 57,850 to Rs 58,380, which is the higher-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart and the 100-DMA, respectively. The 200-DMA is at a fair distance at Rs 61,530.

Similarly, on the weekly chart, Silver futures are seen testing resistance around the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) placed at Rs 58,240, and support is seen at the 200-WMA at Rs 54,720.

Among the key momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI and the MACD are in favour of the bulls on the daily chart. 

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week the MCX Silver December futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 55,000 to Rs 58,480; with support likely around Rs 56,110 - Rs 55,660 - Rs 55,330. On the upside, Silver futures may face resistance around Rs 57,345 - Rs 57,800 - Rs 58,130.

On Monday, Silver futures are likely to seek support around Rs 56,100 - Rs 55,900 - Rs 55,705, while on the upside the commodity may face resistance around Rs 57,360 - Rs 57,555 - Rs 57,750.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini November futures are likely to seek support around Rs 56,575 - Rs 56,400 - Rs 56,220; while the Mini contract may face resistance around Rs 57,725 - Rs 57,900 - Rs 58,080 on Monday.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro November futures could seek support around Rs 56,685 - Rs 56,510 - Rs 56,335 and might face resistance around Rs 57,815 - Rs 57,990 - Rs 58,165 today.