The shortfall in India’s monsoon, the main source of irrigation for the nation’s 235 million farmers, narrowed to 9 per cent as of yesterday, the weather office said.
The nation received 363.3 mm of rain in the June 1-July 25 period, compared with the 50-year average of 398.4 mm, the India Meteorological Department said on its website. The monsoon was 16 per cent below normal in June.
Rainfall was 6 per cent below normal in northwest India, including Uttar Pradesh, 9 per cent below average in central states including Madhya Pradesh, the agency said. Madhya Pradesh is India’s biggest soybean growing province, while Uttar Pradesh is the nation’s biggest sugar cane grower.
Heavy falls over most of the country in the past three days cut the deficit to 9 per cent from as high as 16 per cent in June, and the shortfall may narrow to 4 to 5 per cent by the end of the month as rains continue this week, said Ajit Tyagi, director general of the India Meteorological Department.
Increased precipitation may help the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar lift grain output 6 percent to 230 million tonnes in the year to March 31, Nomura Holdings Inc. said last week. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is betting on a rebound in agriculture after a drought last year drove up food costs and forced record imports of sugar, edible oils and pulses.
“Food supply is certain to improve with a good monsoon and that is comforting for policymakers,” Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist with Crisil Ltd., a unit of Standard & Poor’s, said by phone from Mumbai. “As July is the most important month in the monsoon season, a recovery is good for sowing and inflation.”
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Wettest Month
July is the wettest month in the June-to-September season, accounting for third of the total showers. Farmers sowed paddy in 16.97 million hectares (42 million acres) as of July 22, 7.6 percent more from a year ago, and cotton to 9.5 million hectares, up from 8.06 million hectares, the farm ministry said on July 23. Oilseeds were sown on 12.9 million hectares, up 4 per cent.
“The performance of the monsoon has been overall good for sowing this year,” weather bureau’s Tyagi said. “Rains may be better in the next two months because of La Nina and that augurs well for agriculture.”
La Nina causes wetter-than-normal conditions in Asia and drier weather in the Americas.
Most parts of the country’s cane, rice, cotton and oilseed areas will get widespread rain in three to four days, Tyagi said.
Rainfall may be 102 per cent of the 50-year average for the season, helped by La Nina, the forecaster said last month.