The forecast of continual rainfall till the last week of September could probably dent the prospects of good cotton crop in Punjab and Haryana, as productivity is likely to take a hit.
The projections of higher yields due to good prospects of monsoon may be reversed as the intermittent showers, cloudy sky and growth of leaf curl virus on the RCH134 BG2 variety of cotton is likely to undermine the yield.
According to the meteorological department, rainfall is likely to continue in the region for another week, and conditions are expected to improve.
Rakesh Rathi, president, North India Cotton Association maintained the dry season during last month of cotton harvesting is ideal for the crop, though it has been continually raining.
According to the farmers in the Bhatinda belt of Punjab, there was an anticipation of leaf curl virus in the variety available in the market. Since Micro seed was not available in the market till May 20, most of the farmers had to sow RCH314BG2 as the optimum cotton sowing period is from mid-April to May 15.
The cotton prices have already gone through the roof with a revision of 15 per cent-20 per cent in the last week.
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The prevailing price of cotton is over Rs 4,000 per mond ( 37.324 kilogram) that was Rs 3,700 per mond last week.
This is a fallout to short supply of cotton as a consequence of late maturing of crop due to extended monsoon.
According to cotton traders, the prices are expected to remain 30 per cent-35 per cent above the last year prices. The October deliveries, said one of the traders are being booked for Rs 3,700 per mond. November deliveries of cotton are booked for Rs 3,550-Rs 3,600 per mond and December for about Rs 3,500 per mond.
The prices may touch further high if the exports are not regulated, he added.
The rains in other cotton belts (Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh) would also effect the production. Of these, Gujarat had a higher incidence of rain.
The peak picking (harvesting) season for cotton in Haryana and Punjab is likely to commence by the end of September (theses two states get early cotton harvest followed by other states)and if continuous rainfall persists chances are the rotting of cotton would commence and even the crop could face pathogen attack.
Due to cloudy sky, the plant length has been stretching but the flowering is slow, this would effect the yield. The waterlogging in the field has also restrained the flowering in the lower part of the stem.
The rain may help to arrest the dwindling water table but would cast a shadow on the quality and yield of cotton crop.