“Indian stocks have held up remarkably well despite the rise in oil prices, possibly due to a combination of a change in macro funding mix to FDI, falling oil intensity in GDP, high real relative policy rates and a strong domestic bid on stocks. That said, the length of the military action in Ukraine could determine its impact on earnings and multiples. FY23 earnings estimates have been cut by 8 per cent to reflect lower GDP growth forecasts,” wrote Ridham Desai, head of India research and India equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in a co-authored report with Sheela Rathi and Nayant Parekh.
It has also slashed its December-2022 Sensex target by 11 per cent – from 70,000 (base case; 50 per cent probability) earlier to 62,000 now. This still is nearly 11 per cent higher from the current levels. CHECK BULL-CASE, BEAR-CASE, BASE-CASE SCENARIO HERE
For its base case Sensex target, Morgan Stanley has assumed that the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict will end in weeks, Sensex earnings compound 22 per cent annually over FY22-24, and future COVID-19 waves do not result in a major economic disruption. That apart, it expects the government policy to remain supportive and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) undertakes a calibrated exit.
In a bull-case scenario (30 per cent probability), Morgan Stanley expects the Sensex to hit 75,000 by December 2022-end and sees the 30-share index at 45,000 levels by the year-end in a bear case scenario to which it has attached 20 per cent probability.
ALSO READ: Markets to consolidate over the next three-six months: Sampath Reddy
Ober the past two trding sessions, the markets have rebounded sharply - in line with their global peers - on hopes of de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, after the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy indicated on Wednesday that the country was no longer interest in NATO membership, the main reason behind the war.
Sectors to bet on
Markets, according to a note by BofA Securities, have been volatile post peaking in October 2021, with nine distinct cycles of corrections (five cycles with 6.3 per cent average fall) and recovery (four cycles with over 5 per cent average returns) since then.
ALSO READ: Foreign brokerages trim Nifty December 2022 target amid headwinds
"Our bottom-up analysis revealed, benchmarked to Nifty, on an average, Industrials (+3 per cent), Discretionary (+2.3 per cent), Cement (+1.4 per cent), Metals (+0.9 per cent) & IT (+0.1 per cent) delivered higher returns during Nifty recovery cycles. Cement (-2 per cent), Industrials (-1.4 per cent), Autos (-1.1 per cent), Financials (-0.6 per cent) saw most correction as Nifty corrected," wrote Amish Shah, head of India Research at BofA Securities in the note.
On the other hand, those at Morgan Stanley are overweight Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials and underweight Utilities, Energy and Materials sectors. FULL LIST HERE
"In defensives, we double upgrade Technology and go underweight Consumer Staples and stay underweight on the Healthcare sector," Desai wrote in the coauthored report.
To read the full story, Subscribe Now at just Rs 249 a month
Already a subscriber? Log in
Subscribe To BS Premium
₹249
Renews automatically
₹1699₹1999
Opt for auto renewal and save Rs. 300 Renews automatically
₹1999
What you get on BS Premium?
-
Unlock 30+ premium stories daily hand-picked by our editors, across devices on browser and app.
-
Pick your 5 favourite companies, get a daily email with all news updates on them.
Full access to our intuitive epaper - clip, save, share articles from any device; newspaper archives from 2006.
Preferential invites to Business Standard events.
Curated newsletters on markets, personal finance, policy & politics, start-ups, technology, and more.
Need More Information - write to us at assist@bsmail.in