Negative internals call for caution

TECHNICALS

The "kihon suchi" formation advocated yesterday based on the oriental charts had the desired effect as the bulls abdicated their initiative to the bears.

The market breadth was negative for the third session in a row as the combined exchange figures were 456:3639. The capitalisation of the same was also negative as the commensurate figures were Rs 3965 crore:Rs 26095 crore.

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range and on negative market internals. The 6205 support advocated for Thursday was violated as the Nifty closed below this threshold.

The coming session will witness an intraday range of 6035 on declines and 6280 on advances. The falling daily range indicates lower tops and bottoms formation on western charts. Watch the traded volumes should the Nifty fall below the 6100 levels. A high volume decline will be bad news for the bulls.

The market internals indicate a lower turnover as the participation levels fell marginally. The number of trades contracted and the average ticket size were higher, indicating selling by stronger hands.

The outlook for the markets on Friday is that of caution as the weekend factor and overseas cues may hang heavily on sentiment. Big ticket longs should be avoided for now.

Vijay L. Bhambwani
(CEO- BSPLindia.com)

The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com or ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

Mandatory disclosure: the analyst has no exposure to any scrip/s recommended above.