| Production forecasts from industry sources vary from 20.0 million bales to 22.5 million bales, although the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) is sticking to its estimate of 21.3 million bales. |
| Many market sources suspect that the arrival estimates for the current year is likely to contain illegally sold cotton bales, which have not been included in the CAB's official production and consumption estimates of the past years. |
| As a result, the increase over historical production and consumption is expected to be less than it currently appears, according to GAIN. |
| Market arrivals have doubled in Maharashtra to 4.7 million bales from2.34 million bales last year, while Gujarat saw a rise to 3.96 million bales from 3.11 million bales. |
| Arrivals in Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan were at 2.73 million bales, 1.35 million bales, 1.17 million bales and 0.84 million bales respectively. |
| Arrivals have been unusually strong, with farmers preferring to offload their stocks even as prices have falling since the beginning of the season due to a record global crop. |
| However, arrivals are expected to stop roughly one month earlier than last year in many states. |
| Market prices of commonly traded varieties are almost 35 per cent lower compared to last year, and are expected to be under pressure for the next few months as domestic arrivals continue. |
| Consequently, consumption estimates have been raised to 19.3 million bales from the previous estimate of 18.3 million bales. |
| The mill consumption reported between October and January is roughly 11 per cent higher than the corresponding period last year, raising the mill consumption estimates to 16.5 million bales. |
| Exports are estimated to touch 1 million bales, with local prices reported to be cheaper than by 5-10 per cent than foreign varieties. |
| Indian cotton quality is however, discounted by 5-8 per cent compared with cotton from other origins, restricting exports only to neighbouring countries. |
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