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News flow holds the key

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Vijay L. Bhambwani Mumbai
Last Updated : Mar 01 2013 | 2:40 PM IST
The markets opened on a bullish note and proceeded to trade sideways through Friday.
 
The benchmark indices closed with minor change over the previous session. The traded volumes were in line with Thursday's session.
 
The market breadth was highly negative with the ratio of advancing to declining shares on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange combined standing at at 1016 : 2239 and the capitalisation of the breadth at Rs 3,354 crore: Rs 3,709 crore.
 
The indices have been creeping higher on a closing basis since the last few sessions and that is a sign of minor comfort for the bulls.
 
The oscillators are pointing towards the possibility of an upmove if the news flow is not adverse.
 
The upsides will be met with minor resistance at the 2084 and the 6626 levels on the Nifty and Sensex, respectively in the coming session.
 
The downsides are likely to see support at the 2042 and the 6525 levels on an intraday basis in the coming session. Beyond these two levels, expect to see sharper swings in the indices.
 
Traded volumes will hold a key to the trend determination process in the near term, along with the market breadth and the open interest figures.
 
The outlook for the markets on Monday is that of volatility and larger price swings on lower volumes as the markets will be governed by budget announcements.
 
I advocate abundant caution and advocate selling deeply out of money puts on the Nifty for the income conscious player in the near month series.

Vijay L. Bhambwani
(CEO - BSPLindia.com)

The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com  or(022) 23438482 / 23400345.
 
Sebi disclosure: the analyst has no exposure to the scrips mentioned above.

 

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