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Nifty likely to witness rally

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Vijay Bhambwani Mumbai
Last Updated : Feb 26 2013 | 12:24 AM IST
The markets opened on a shaky note and proceeded to trade with strength through the day.
 
The benchmark indices gained over a per cent, as the bulls returned with vigour on the government announcement on SBI. The traded volumes were lower than the previous session as scepticism was evident on advances.
 
The market breadth was marginally positive as the BSE and the NSE combined figures were 1852 : 1809 and the capitalisation of the breadth was also negative, as the figures on the BSE and the NSE combined basis were Rs 9919 crs : Rs 2102 crs.
 
The disparity in the market breadth in absolute and capitalisation basis shows a buying bias in the large-cap segment by big-ticket players, whereas the retail segment seems to have booked profits at higher levels.
 
The indices closed at the upper end of the intraday range and above the 4126 threshold advocated yesterday for the Nifty spot. The fact that the Nifty did not trade below the previous session's close indicates bullishness.
 
The lack of high traded volumes may be attributed to a lack of buying conviction within the retail space and the near-even market breadth signals a bias towards profit sales on advances. The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 4174 on advances and 4097 on declines.
 
The intraday range of the Nifty is clearly on the ascent, which is a sign of optimism. The oscillators are indicating a measured upmove and the first retracement of the fibonacci sequence has held. Should the previous significant high of 4167 be overcome convincingly on high volumes and higher open interest, the upmove will gain more credibility.
 
The outlook for the markets on Friday is that of cautious optimism and the Nifty may attempt to rally since the closing has been near the intraday highs. High-risk, short-term traders may attempt small long positions as long as the overseas cues are positive.

Vijay L. Bhambwani
(CEO- BSPLindia.com )

The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com  or ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.
 
Mandatory disclosure - the analyst has no exposure to the scrips mentioned above.

 

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First Published: Feb 02 2007 | 12:00 AM IST

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