The Budget week saw the Sensex slide another two per cent to close at 18,919. In the process, the BSE benchmark index closed the month with a loss of 5.2 per cent. It fell about six per cent in the last five weeks. Last week, the index had touched a high of 19,411, before tumbling to a low of 18,794.
Among Sensex-30 stocks, Hindalco slumped 7.5 per cent to Rs 99. Tata Steel and Reliance fell about six per cent each. HDFC Bank, Coal India, State Bank of India, Dr. Reddy's and Sterlite were the other major losers. TCS surged about three per cent to Rs 1,500, while Infosys rallied 2.5 per cent. Bajaj Auto and Wipro were the other major gainers.
According to the monthly Fibonacci charts, the Sensex is likely to seek support at 18,415-18,135 in March; it may face resistance at 19,310-19,590. The quarterly charts indicate the Sensex has broken its S1 (support 1) level. So far, it seems to be taking support at S2, or 18,750. The S3 for this quarter is 18,585. In case the BSE index is able to take support above the S2 or S3 levels and trade consistently at more than 18,900, we could see a meaningful pull-back to 19,400-odd levels in March.
Last week, the National Stock Exchange Nifty moved in a range of 207 points. The index touched a high of 5,878, before slipping to a low of 5,672. It ended the week at 5,720, a loss 2.2 per cent (131 points). The Nifty is trading in fairly oversold territory on the daily charts. The ADX (average directional index) has shown positive divergence. Therefore, we could see some consolidation next week. The recent low of 5,670-odd levels could act as an immediate support for the Nifty. On the upside, the index could bounce back to 5,850-odd levels, with interim resistance at about 5,785.
However, there are no signs of respite on the weekly charts. All key momentum oscillators such as the RSI (the relative strength index), the MACD (moving average convergence & divergence) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bears.
According to the weekly charts, the bias is likely to favour the bears as long as the Nifty sustains below 5,840-odd levels. On the downside, the index could slide to 5,550-odd levels---the 200-weekly moving average.
To sum up, in case the index holds above 5,670, we could see a pull-back in the markets, which could take the Nifty to 5,850-odd levels. In the interim, the index could face resistance at about 5,785. Overall, it seems set for 5,550-odd levels in the short to medium term.
Among Sensex-30 stocks, Hindalco slumped 7.5 per cent to Rs 99. Tata Steel and Reliance fell about six per cent each. HDFC Bank, Coal India, State Bank of India, Dr. Reddy's and Sterlite were the other major losers. TCS surged about three per cent to Rs 1,500, while Infosys rallied 2.5 per cent. Bajaj Auto and Wipro were the other major gainers.
According to the monthly Fibonacci charts, the Sensex is likely to seek support at 18,415-18,135 in March; it may face resistance at 19,310-19,590. The quarterly charts indicate the Sensex has broken its S1 (support 1) level. So far, it seems to be taking support at S2, or 18,750. The S3 for this quarter is 18,585. In case the BSE index is able to take support above the S2 or S3 levels and trade consistently at more than 18,900, we could see a meaningful pull-back to 19,400-odd levels in March.
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According to the weekly Fibonacci charts, the Sensex is likely to seek support at 18,680-18,535. In case of an upside, it may face resistance at 19,150-19,300.
Last week, the National Stock Exchange Nifty moved in a range of 207 points. The index touched a high of 5,878, before slipping to a low of 5,672. It ended the week at 5,720, a loss 2.2 per cent (131 points). The Nifty is trading in fairly oversold territory on the daily charts. The ADX (average directional index) has shown positive divergence. Therefore, we could see some consolidation next week. The recent low of 5,670-odd levels could act as an immediate support for the Nifty. On the upside, the index could bounce back to 5,850-odd levels, with interim resistance at about 5,785.
However, there are no signs of respite on the weekly charts. All key momentum oscillators such as the RSI (the relative strength index), the MACD (moving average convergence & divergence) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bears.
According to the weekly charts, the bias is likely to favour the bears as long as the Nifty sustains below 5,840-odd levels. On the downside, the index could slide to 5,550-odd levels---the 200-weekly moving average.
To sum up, in case the index holds above 5,670, we could see a pull-back in the markets, which could take the Nifty to 5,850-odd levels. In the interim, the index could face resistance at about 5,785. Overall, it seems set for 5,550-odd levels in the short to medium term.