| A week of range-trading ended with a sell off on Friday that left the major indices practically unchanged. |
| The Nifty closed at 4187 points for a gain of 0.09 per cent. The Sensex was up 0.94 per cent at 14538.9 points. The Defty was up 0.14 per cent as the rupee stayed strong. |
| Breadth signals were poor on Friday when declines far outnumbered advances. Volumes were reasonable throughout the week. The BSE 500 was up merely 0.16 per cent. |
| The FIIs have become markedly more bullish during February than they were in January. However, the Indian mutuals remain bearish in their approach and are net sellers. |
| Outlook: The market is likely to continue oscillating between Nifty 4125-4250 throughout this settlement. There is a clearly defined resistance above 4200 which may be penetrated on an intra-day basis. |
| Further, there is an evident secondary support at 4125 and higher up, there's primary support at 4175. |
| Rationale: The technical signals are close to neutral and the Nifty price line is inclined towards range-trading. The Q3 results are almost through, so a major trigger there is unlikely. |
| As for policy, while pre-Budget trading appears to be generally bullish, it's likely to be quite cautious. During periods when the FIIs and Indian mutuals are taking opposite views, as they are now, the market tends to oscillate. |
| Counter-view: If there is a close around or above the 4250 mark, especially on a session which would have a volume expansion and positive breadth, then that will lead to another phase of sharp bullishness. Equally, a close below the 4100-mark will indicate medium-term bearishness. |
| Bulls & bears: The Bank Nifty saw a disproportionately large rise of 1.79 per cent. The CNX IT was up 0.69 per cent, which was somewhat lower than the Sensex's performance. However in both segments, the sentiment was actually mixed. |
| Among banks, HDFC Bank, ICICI, Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC), Syndicate and UTI Bank looked bullish but there was a bearish feel to BoB and PNB. Among IT stocks, Infosys and Mphasis BFL looked bullish but Satyam and Polaris appeared to be seeing a hammering. |
| Among other stocks, sentiment was mixed. HDFC and Zee looked bullish while Hindustan Lever, HPCL, MTNL, ONGC, Satyam, Biocon and Sterlite seemed quite bearish. IFCI saw a sell-off after its dizzying rise. |
| MICRO TECHNICALS |
| Infosys Current price: 2361 Target price: 2400 |
| Infosys completed a bullish formation when it closed above 2320 on Wednesday, rising on good volumes. It has a minimum target of 2400 and perhaps, it could rise till 2450. It has already tested the 2400-level intra-day without being able to maintain those prices. Keep a stop at 2340 and go long. |
| ONGC Current price: 884 Target price: 860 |
| The stock has dipped, breaking a critical range-trading support when it closed below 890. It is likely to fall until the 860 level before it finds another reliable support. Keep a stop at 892 and go short. Cover below 865. |
| OBC Current price: 232.55 Target price: 245, 255 |
| The stock appears to be on the verge of completing an upward breakout "� it has already closed above a key resistance at 230 with reasonable volume. It has a minimum target of 245 and it has the potential to rise until 255. Keep a stop at 230 and go long. |
| Sterlite Current price: 459.95 Target price: 440, 425 |
| The stock made a downside breakout on Monday when it closed below 505. The initial target projection was a minimum of 440 with a likely drop till 425. Keep a stop at 480 and go short. Book partial profits at 440. |
| Zee Current price: 361.3 Target price: 385 |
| The demerger has set off a mini bull run. Volumes improved on Friday and the stock continued to rise. We have a small problem in that the price history pre-demerger is unreliable and we can't make projections on the basis of that. |
| However, looking only at post-demerger prices, we can project a likely target of 385-390. Keep a stop at 355 and go long. |
| (The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.) |
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