For more than a decade General Electric Co. could easily avoid disclosing the value of its real estate and business loans. Not any more.
Since January 2, GE lost 54 per cent on the New York Stock Exchange, mostly because shareholders are no longer willing to accept whatever the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company tells them about its finance subsidiary unless it’s based on so-called mark-to-market accounting rules.
The world’s biggest maker of jet engines and power turbines told shareholders last week that 2 per cent of GE Capital Corporation’s assets are being valued based on market prices. The remaining $624 billion is being carried at levels that GE, the last original member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, established in many cases years ago, according to CreditSights Inc.
“The notion of having 98 per cent opaque and 2 per cent valued with clarity is something that by its very nature would make investors nervous,” said Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates LLC, which oversees $30 billion in Newport Beach, California and owned 481,201 GE shares as of December 31. “Having some clarity on what the other 98 percent is worth is valuable.”
Once the world’s largest company, with a market value of almost $600 billion, GE has plummeted to $78.3 billion in New York Stock Exchange trading. The shares posted two of the three worst weekly declines since 1980 during the past month as investors speculate the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression will cause more writedowns and losses at its finance division than the $10 billion the company anticipates.
Last week, the stock fell below $6, the price of some GE light bulbs, for the first time since 1991. Yesterday, GE rose 5 percent to $7.41.
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“We recognise there is a need and an opportunity to do more” to improve disclosure and transparency, GE spokesman Russell Wilkerson said in an e-mailed response to questions.
GE, which will hold a five-hour meeting with investors and analysts on March 19 to discuss the finance unit’s business, follows generally accepted accounting principles, which don’t require it to mark all assets to market, according to Wilkerson. In fact, the rules in many cases forbid it, he said.
GE predicts the finance unit will earn $5 billion this year, more than forecasts by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Terry Darling in New York expects the finance unit to break even this year as losses from loan losses swell in commercial real estate and in Eastern Europe.
GE’s forecast reserves relative to loans of 2.5 percent this year are still “thin” relative to banks, which means raising more capital is “inevitable,” according to Darling.
The gap between GE and the analysts reflects differing valuations for assets in the finance division.
The unit is similar in size to the sixth-biggest US bank, according to an estimate by CreditSights, an independent bond research firm based in New York. Most of its loans are senior secured debt tied to assets such as aircraft.
GE Capital generated 48 per cent of the parent company’s $18.1 billion in profit last year. That compares with about 20 per cent in the late 1980s, according to Nicholas P Heymann, an analyst at Sterne Agee, a Birmingham, Alabama-based brokerage.
He estimated in a note on March 3 that GE may need more money to cover losses of between $21 billion and $54 billion in the next several years. That would be almost as much as Merrill Lynch & Co. wrote down, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. New York-based Merrill was acquired by Bank of America Corp. of Charlotte, North Carolina.
Heymann’s “analysis is flawed and produces misleading estimates,” according to GE’s Wilkerson.
“The transparency is what you want,” said Barry James, chief executive officer of James Investment Research Inc. in Xenia, Ohio, which oversees $1.3 billion. “I don’t think anybody knows what they’re worth.”
The debate over the fair-value rule, which requires companies to assess assets every quarter to reflect a market price, divides finance industry executives. Banks say the rule, also known as mark to market, requires them to report losses from falling values even if they don’t expect to incur penalties because the assets aren’t for sale. The lower valuations can force companies to raise capital to comply with federal regulations.
Blackstone Group LP Chairman Stephen Schwarzman, the American Bankers Association and 65 lawmakers in the House of Representatives urged that fair-value accounting, mandated by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, be suspended last September.
William Isaac, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. from 1981 to 1985, has called fair value “extremely and needlessly destructive” and “a major cause” of the credit crisis. Robert Rubin, the former Citigroup Inc. senior counselor and treasury secretary, said January 27 the rule has done “a great deal of damage.”
Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein, Lazard Ltd. Chairman Bruce Wasserstein and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner support fair-value accounting.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress February 25 that fair value is a “good principle in general” even if accounting rulemakers have to “figure out how to deal with some of these assets” that aren’t actively traded. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro has said mark to market wasn’t a significant factor in the current crisis.
Blaming the rule “is a lot like going to a doctor for a diagnosis and then blaming him for telling you that you are sick,” Dane Mott, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a September report.
GE, which may lose its AAA ratings from Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s, will meet with analysts this month to make good on Chief Financial Officer Keith Sherin’s promise of a “deep dive” explanation of the finance unit. The company cut its dividend for the first time since 1938 last month to preserve $9 billion in cash.
“Investors need the assets broken down so they can see what’s really there,” said Craig Hester, president of Hester Capital Management, which oversees about $1.1 billion in Austin, Texas. “The market cares about whether GE is being honest. In the case of GE, there is fear.”