Deficient rainfall in key growing areas cited as reason.
India’s kharif oilseed output for 2009-10 (October-September) may decline at least 15 per cent from last year due to deficient rainfall in key growing regions, said Govindbhai Patel, member of Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade’s (COOIT) crop committee.
“Overall oilseeds acreage has come down by 1.8-2 million hectares this kharif, and drought is also likely to impact crop yield. Hence, output may be 15 per cent lower than a year ago,” Patel said. According to data from COOIT, total kharif oilseed production for 2008-09 is 15.07 million tonnes.
“Of all the oilseeds, the worst scenario is of groundnut. Area in south India, mainly Andhra Pradesh, has fallen due to low rains, whereas in Gujarat, heavy rains and flood in some key producing regions had an adverse impact on the crop,” said Patel.
He said kharif groundnut production for 2009-10 is expected to decline 25 per cent from 4.22 million tonnes in the previous year.
Gujarat is the largest groundnut producing state in India, followed by Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. In case of soybean, Patel said production in 2009-10 is likely to drop by 200,000-300,000 tonnes from 8.9 million tonnes a year ago.
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He added area under soybean may be lower by 100,000 hectares this kharif season.
“Soybean crop yield is likely to decline, especially in Rajasthan and Maharashtra, due to low rains. Even though situation in Madhya Pradesh is better because the state has received fairly good rainfall, it is not as good as last year. So, production will come down,” he said.
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan are the top three soybean producing states in the country.
Patel said output of sunflower seed is also likely to fall on decline in acreage and deficient rains in the growing regions of Andhra Pradesh, the second-largest producer after Karnataka. Area under sunflower cultivation has declined as farmers received lower returns for their produce last year.
Patel said the drought is likely to also have a negative impact on rabi oilseed crops as soil moisture would be lower.
“In the key mustard seed growing states of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, rainfall has been poor, following which soil moisture content at the time of sowing would be less. However, if these areas receive some rains in September-October, then there will not be much to worry,” Patel said. Despite lower production of oilseeds this year, prices may not increase significantly as they mainly follow trends in international markets, he said.
Edible oil imports
Lower oilseeds output is expected to increase India’s dependence on imports to meet its domestic edible oil demand, Patel said.
“We can expect (edible oil) imports to rise next year, but the quantum may not be very high as drought might lead to some demand destruction,” he said.
In the current oil year ending October, total vegetable oil imports are likely to touch an all-time high of 8.5 million tonnes, against 6.3 million tonnes in the previous year, Patel said.
Of the total imports, edible oils will account for 8.0 million tonnes, while the remaining 500,000 tonnes would be non-edible oils, he said.
“As of now, imports in the next oil year are likely to rise by at least 400,000-500,00 tonnes,” Patel said. He said edible oil imports in August are expected to be 575,000-600,000 tonnes, while in September, they are seen rising to 650,000 tonnes.