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Optimistic trend seen ahead

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Vijay Bhambwani Mumbai
Last Updated : Feb 14 2013 | 7:42 PM IST
The markets opened on a shaky note and proceeded to trade higher through the day. The benchmark indices gained nearly 0.5 per cent at close as the bulls returned with vigour.
 
Traded volumes were lower than the previous day's volumes which indicate a scepticism at higher levels from the retail segment.
 
The market breadth was positive as the BSE and NSE combined figures were 1998 : 1389 and the capitalisation of the breadth was also positive as the figures on a BSE & NSE combined basis were Rs 8332 crore : Rs 3200 crore.
 
The F&O figures for the previous session indicate a continued buying momentum albeit with caution, but the bears were seen covering their shorts marginally.
 
The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday range as the bulls have bounced back to trounce the bears. I had talked of "fading the break" pattern, which implies a false sense of submission by the bulls to trap the bears.
 
That hypothesis has been vindicated as the markets recovered lost ground fairly quickly. This pattern is a part of the larger move known as "shakeout pattern" by veteran analysts. Rank and file traders are unlikely to make sustainable gains from the markets in the short term.
 
The 3821 top advocated for Thursday has proved to a formidable hurdle as the Nifty retraced from the 3808 level. The coming session is likely to see intraday levels of 3822 on the upsides and 3772 on declines, beyond which a fresh view can be considered by the short term players.
 
The outlook for the markets on Friday is that of guarded optimism as the weekend session is likely to see a slower build up of fresh positions.
 
Should there be no adverse news flow, the trend is likely to remain optimistic. Traders are likely to benefit from the Nifty short combination strategy in the near month series. All fresh initiatives must be on lower exposure only.

Vijay L. Bhambwani
(CEO- BSPLindia.com)

The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com  or ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.
 
Mandatory disclosure: the analyst has no exposure to the scrips mentioned above.

 

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First Published: Nov 10 2006 | 12:00 AM IST

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