Pakistan may miss cotton output target

Pakistan may miss its cotton production target for the year if farmers don't immediately quell a pest attack, a government official said.

"There is a widespread attack by millibugs," Masood Amjad Rana, cotton commissioner at the agriculture ministry in Islamabad, said in a phone interview yesterday. "If this is not controlled, cotton output could fall by 2 or 3 million bales within the next month."

The government had forecast that cotton production may increase in the year starting July 1 to 13.2 million bales from 13 million bales last year. Pakistan, the world's fourth-largest cotton grower, cultivates the crop from April to June and harvests start in September.

South Asia's second-biggest economy plans to boost annual cotton output to 21 million bales by 2015, or 3.57 million tonnes, to help cut costs for the domestic textile makers, who compete with rivals in China and India. Textile shipments account for more than 60 per cent of the country's total exports.

The millibug attack can be controlled by ensuring availability of pesticides in the affected area as soon as possible, said Rana. If managed properly, the crop will achieve the production target and "even surpass" it during the year.

Cotton production may be reduced by as much as 50 per cent if the pest is not eradicated.

"It is extremely dangerous," said Qammaruzzamman Shah, president of the Agriculture Chamber of Sindh, one of the main cotton-growing provinces in Pakistan. "If not controlled it could cut cotton production by half."

The millibug virus attack appears as a powder that attacks the stem of the plant and leaves it dry in a few days. The pest can reappear a week after being sprayed with pesticide.

"The only proper way to fight this is aerial sprays on all the affected areas," said Shah.

The South Asian nation, which expects total exports to rise 13 per cent to $18.6 billion in the year ending June 30, is counting on higher textile shipments to help reach that target.

Pakistan forecasts exports will increase as it finds new markets to help sustain higher growth, Commerce Minister Humayun Akhtar said on July 18.

Exports in the year that started July 1 are expected to climb to $19.2 billion, said Akhtar, without predicting how much imports would be. Exports last year grew 4.5 per cent to $17 billion, more than doubling in the past seven years.