 "Pest attack to hit coffee production this year")
Coffee planters in Karnataka say this year's production might be lower than estimates by the Coffee Board, owing to white stem borer pest attack. Karnataka accounts for three-fourths of India's production.
The Coffee Board estimates this year's production to be 355,000 tonnes - 245,000 tonnes of Robusta and 110,000 tonnes of Arabica. Its forecasts are based on timely blossoming of the crop and adequate rains.
However, planters peg the total crop for 2015-16 at 310,000-315,000 tonnes. They say production fluctuates every year. Besides, a good year is followed by a bad one.
Production in 2014-15 was 327,000 tonnes, three per cent higher than the Boards estimates and about nine per cent more than the previous year.
"I differ with the Board on the estimates for 2015-16. Robusta crops have been affected badly by the white stem borer and production cannot be that high," said Marvin Rodrigues, a coffee exporter and former chairman of the Karnataka Planters' Association. He said he came to this conclusion after getting inputs from fellow planters.
The pre-monsoon showers were very good, said a planter. After that, in July, there had been some heavy rains and strong winds that led to the uprooting of a few trees, affecting production.
Arabica production can in no way be more than 100,000 tonnes, said another planter. "I would not expect it to be more than 55,000-60,000 tonnes," said a veteran planter and an office bearer of the planters' body, who did not wish to be named.
However, a senior official of the Coffee Board justified its estimates. "The estimates were made as the rains were very good this time around. We will make estimates again on the rain impact in October, and those would be more realistic."
Some, such as Ramesh Rajah, chairman of Coffee Exporters Association of India, agreed with the Board's estimates. "Arabica was a weak crop in 2014-15, and Robusta was high. This year, it will be the other way round. The post-monsoon estimates of the Board is generally the closest to reality and they are getting better at their estimations."
The Board's estimates are often within a 10 per cent range, Rajah added. Satellite imaging might not help in estimating the crop accurately as coffee plants are on steep slopes.
The Coffee Board estimates this year's production to be 355,000 tonnes - 245,000 tonnes of Robusta and 110,000 tonnes of Arabica. Its forecasts are based on timely blossoming of the crop and adequate rains.
However, planters peg the total crop for 2015-16 at 310,000-315,000 tonnes. They say production fluctuates every year. Besides, a good year is followed by a bad one.
Production in 2014-15 was 327,000 tonnes, three per cent higher than the Boards estimates and about nine per cent more than the previous year.
"I differ with the Board on the estimates for 2015-16. Robusta crops have been affected badly by the white stem borer and production cannot be that high," said Marvin Rodrigues, a coffee exporter and former chairman of the Karnataka Planters' Association. He said he came to this conclusion after getting inputs from fellow planters.
The pre-monsoon showers were very good, said a planter. After that, in July, there had been some heavy rains and strong winds that led to the uprooting of a few trees, affecting production.
Arabica production can in no way be more than 100,000 tonnes, said another planter. "I would not expect it to be more than 55,000-60,000 tonnes," said a veteran planter and an office bearer of the planters' body, who did not wish to be named.
However, a senior official of the Coffee Board justified its estimates. "The estimates were made as the rains were very good this time around. We will make estimates again on the rain impact in October, and those would be more realistic."
Some, such as Ramesh Rajah, chairman of Coffee Exporters Association of India, agreed with the Board's estimates. "Arabica was a weak crop in 2014-15, and Robusta was high. This year, it will be the other way round. The post-monsoon estimates of the Board is generally the closest to reality and they are getting better at their estimations."
The Board's estimates are often within a 10 per cent range, Rajah added. Satellite imaging might not help in estimating the crop accurately as coffee plants are on steep slopes.