The state's coffee-growing areas of Kodagu, Hassan and Chikmagalur normally get a major part of the rainfall during June-July. But this year, most of these areas have got less than half the average rainfall.
Lack of rains and low moisture level have made these areas dry and the crop vulnerable to leaf rust disease and white stem borer (WSB) attacks. Water table and other non-coffee farming activities in the state are also likely to be affected.
"If the coffee-growing regions do not get rainfall soon, the crop will be severely affected. This may result in failure to meet the post-blossom estimate of 293,000 tonnes," said a senior Coffee Board official, who is currently touring the coffee region to take stock of the situation.
"Taking into account the pre-monsoon factors, the crop forecast for Karnataka was placed at 81,270 tonnes of arabica and 132,900 tonnes of robusta, totalling 214,170 tonnes," he added.
However, the situation was better in the October-March period with good and well-distributed rainfall. Growers are now worried that coffee plants did not get adequate rest from the previous crop cycle and the current dry spell is making them jittery about the quality of the crop.
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Earlier, a lower crop in the previous season coupled with a good weather and bush condition and better farm practices had proved a boon for the state. Global coffee prices are ruling firm despite speculation on the size of Brazilian and Vietnamese crop.
The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) has estimated the global production in 2008-09 to be around 128 million bags compared with 118 million bags in 2007-08. Consumption during 2007 is estimated around 122.7 million bags and likely to maintain this level in 2008.
Brazil has sold its buffer stock and is now expected to set aside a major portion of its current production. It may lead to a shortfall in the global markets.
"Only with timely rainfall in the next two weeks, the state's production levels can be maintained and growers can reap a higher realisation for their produce," said the official.