As the markets trade near their all-time highs and valuations look expensive, most investors are worried about where they are headed and the returns they could generate in 2011. Also, with higher interest rates and commodity prices, there is uncertainty over corporate India’s earnings. Jitendra Kumar Gupta spoke to A Balasubramanian, Chief Executive Officer of Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company, on these issues. Edited Excerpts:
What are the opportunities available for the investor currently, given that the broader markets seem to be trading at expensive valuations?
The markets are reasonably valued at the current levels from a near-term perspective. However, after the good returns in the last two years, this year the markets will remain or trade in a range. This is also a reason that in the current year, a stock-specific and sector-specific approach will work better. This could be attributed to the fact that there is less clarity on the earnings and there are questions over the global recovery and importantly, the impact of higher international crude oil prices on the economy and corporate earnings.
Could these factors such as higher input costs due to higher commodity prices along with higher interest rates also lead to earnings downgrades?
Among the factors for now, rising interest rates could be a major hindrance. Certain interest rate-sensitive sectors such as construction and others could see an impact on their earnings as a result of higher interest rates. Additionally, we also see the rising input costs on the back of higher commodity prices such as metals, crude oil and agricultural commodities, as a key worry for earnings growth next year.
Keeping these issues in mind, which are the sectors that you like at this point in time?
I think sectors such as capital goods, banking and financials, IT and pharmaceuticals should do well in the current year.
Which are the sectors that investors should stay away from?
I think we could avoid sectors such as real estate, construction and FMCG. Another sector which could remain in the limelight is telecom, given the regulatory uncertainty and the scams. Sectors such as real estate and construction could see an impact in the event of a further hike in interest rates. Another sector that is likely to be out of favour is the FMCG business due to a rise in input costs. This will lead to a spiralling impact on the cost of production and margins.
Which are the major issues, domestic and global, you will keep an eye on this year?
I think investors need to watch closely the government finances, which will be presented in the coming Budget. Besides, the global economic recovery and oil prices will be the key things to watch. More importantly, the investors also need to watch the movement in the Chinese currency and a probable hike in the interest rates, which could have an impact on the global commodity prices.
In the event of a global recovery and worries over China, would emerging markets such as India face an outflow of FII money?
One good thing is that the global leveraged money invested in India is relatively less and most of the flow we have seen over the last year has been coming from long-term investors such as pension funds. This is why we will continue to get long-term FII money.
A Balasubramanian
Chief Executive Officer, Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company