The standing rabi crop looked robust and wheat output in the current year was seen substantially higher than earlier estimates, Agriculture Secretary PK Basu said today.
The condition of the wheat crop was very good, with pest and disease incidence sparse and low night temperatures offsetting any likely adverse impact of heat wave, he said.
"I don't want to put a number on the crop output as of now, but it will definitely be much higher than what we had estimated earlier," Basu, who recently took over as agriculture secretary, said.
In its second advance estimate for 2009-10 (July-June) crop output, the government had pegged wheat output at 80.28 million tonnes.
Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar has last month said this year’s wheat output might top 82 million tonnes, as weather has been good for most of the rabi season.
However, the ministry has been very cautious in raising the production estimates. “We will detail the output figures only by the month-end, as by then arrivals would have started,” Basu said.
More From This Section
He said the current heat wave in several parts of the country has not really had much of an impact on any crop.
In areas where farmers adopt the wheat-rice cropping pattern, wheat is sown early and it had already matured when the heat wave started late last month.
In areas where farmers adopted the wheat-cotton cycle, and the foodgrain crop was sown late, the impact of heat wave was negated by low night temperatures, Basu said.
He said the market, which is the best predictor of crop output, has already factored in a bumper wheat output likely this year and its prices have eased considerably.
In Delhi, wheat is currently selling at about Rs 1,140-1,150 per 100 kg, down sharply from the highs of over Rs 1,400 in November-December.
Basu said oilseed production was also seen good this year, and there had been no impact of the current heat wave on the crop.
However, US-based Martell Crop Projection, had recently said in a report the country's oilseed output estimate this year was too optimistic, as mustard and groundnut crops had been affected by high temperature and dry climate.
Temperatures in the northwest and central parts of India — key oilseed and wheat growing regions—have been 4-6 degrees above normal since mid-March.
Basu said he had not received any report of crop damage or yield loss due to the heat wave.
He said pulses output was also not likely to suffer due to the heat wave.
The government's second advance estimate has pegged India's oilseed output at 26.3 million tonnes, down 5 per cent on year and pulses output at 14.7 million tonnes, up 1.2 per cent on year.
The country's oilseed and pulses output has taken a hit in the last kharif season due to erratic monsoon rains, which had led to the worst drought in 37 years.
Pulses thrust
Basu said the government's main focus in the current kharif season would be on pulses.
Pulses output has been stagnant at about 14-15 million tonnes for over a decade and imports have been steadily rising to meet the demand of the growing population.
To raise pulses output, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in the Union Budget for 2010-11 provided Rs 300 crore to set up 60,000 "pulses and oil seed villages" in rain-fed areas.
He said the government had also combined the outlay given to various schemes such as National Food Security Mission and integrated scheme for oilseeds, pulses, oilpalm and maize under the accelerated pulses development programme for a more focused approach to raise output.
"With all these schemes in place, we are confident of raising pulses yield substantially in the next crop year that starts July 1," Basu said.
He said the National Food Security Mission and Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana had already raised pulses productivity from 625 kg per ha to 669 kg in two years.
Pulses yield should ideally go up to over 800 kg per ha next crop year.
Monsoon outlook
Basu said this time around, the country was far better prepared to tackle any drought-like situation.
"According to indicators available so far, the monsoon should be good. But just in case there is a drought, we are already prepared," he said.
The India Meteorological Department has said El Nino weather phenomena--responsible for last year's drought--have started weakening, which bodes well for monsoon rains.
The current temperature gradient was also conducive for a normal monsoon, Basu said. Basu said El Nino was just one factor that can impact monsoon. The weather department has been watching other parameters and would be able to give its first monsoon forecast by the month-end.
He said the government had ensured adequate seed and fertiliser availability to ensure smooth sowing during the kharif season.
"We have done all that we can, the rest is up to the rains," Basu said.
Last year, nearly 23 per cent deficient southwest monsoon rains had led to the country's worst drought in 37 years, and clipped output of key summer-sown crops, including rice.