Rainfall 5% above normal

MONSOON WATCH

A benevolent monsoon is now bidding adieu to the country, generating hopes of a good kharif harvest. The total rainfall during the season (June to September) has been 5 per cent above normal, proving the long-range monsoon forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) wrong once again.

The IMD's first long-range monsoon forecast issued in April, based on new statistical models adopted this year, had projected the total rainfall to be about 95 per cent of the normal, or 5 per cent below normal, with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent.

But its second and updated forecast, released in June after the actual onset of the monsoon, had scaled down the expected rainfall to 93 per cent of the normal, or 7 per cent below normal, with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent.

Both these predictions have turned out to be off-the-mark by a wide margin. As a result, while the production projections for most crops will need to be revised, mostly upwards, the IMD will have to take a re-look at the new models it used this year to forecast monsoon rainfall.

Significantly, the rainfall has consistently been above normal on most days of the monsoon season as indicated in the accompanying chart. Where the spatial distribution of rainfall is concerned, of the country's total 36 meteorological subdivisions, only 6 (mainly in the north-west) have remained rain-deficient.

These sub-divisions (with deficiency in brackets) are Punjab (-29 per cent), Haryana, including Delhi and Chandigarh (-34 per cent), Himachal Pradesh (-36 per cent), west Uttar Pradesh (-39 per cent), east Madhya Pradesh (-30 per cent) and Arunachal Pradesh (-20 per cent).

In terms of districts, about 368, or 72 per cent, received normal or excess rainfall and 125, or 24 per cent, received deficient rainfall till September 26. The rest have received only scanty rainfall.

The monsoon has already receded from almost the entire north-western region and parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. It may withdraw from some parts of Maharashtra in the next 48 hours.

However, the IMD has predicted isolated heavy rainfall in coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Orissa in next couple of days. Fairly widespread rainfall is also forecast for the eastern region, including north-eastern states, till October 7.

The overall good monsoon rainfall is showing in terms of crop coverage as well as production prospects. The first advance crop output estimates released by the agriculture ministry on September 19 now seem quite conservative, though the picture of main paddy crop is not yet clear.

The Hyderabad-based Directorate of Oilseeds has already marginally raised the kharif oilseed output estimates to 164.13 lakh tonnes from 161.3 lakh tonnes projected by the agriculture ministry.

Groundnut production is now put at 56.02 lakh tonnes, against ministry's 51.8 lakh tones. But soyabean outlook has been marginally scaled down to 89.83 lakh tonnes, against the ministry's reckoning of 90.4 lakh tonnes.

On the whole, the oilseed crops have been sown on 175.99 lakh hectares, against 163.55 lakh hectares last year, marking an area expansion of 12.5 lakh hectares, or 8 per cent.

The outlook for pulses, too, is fairly encouraging with the total area under these crops having risen to 124.7 lakh hectares, against 112.4 lakh hectares in last kharif.

The bulk of this 11 per cent increase in acreage is accounted for by mung, which has been planted on 33.31 lakh hectares, against 24.6 lakh hectares last year.

This amounts to a whopping 35 per cent increase in area. The acreage under arhar and urad has also gone up by around 7 to 8 per cent. The expansion in area is attributed largely to the ruling high prices of pulses.

The area under other commercial crops, too, has expanded this season chiefly due to the price factor. Cotton has been grown on 4 per cent additional area. The new crop has already begun hitting the mandis and the prices are ruling firm, largely on good exports outlook for this natural fibre.

However, the increase in acreage under sugarcane is little surprising as the sugar industry is already reeling under glut and there is every possibility that part of the expected larger new crop might remain uncrushed. Besides, the cane price arrears, which had almost disappeared about a year ago, have mounted once again to about Rs 3,800 crores.

Indeed, nearly a month's delay in the onset of the withdrawal of the monsoon augurs well even for the ensuing rabi season. This is likely to leave adequate moisture in the soils for fresh crop planting.

Besides, the water stock in reservoirs is quite good to sustain crop irrigation as well as hydel power production. According to the Central Water Commission, the country's 81 major reservoirs together had about 120.44 billion cubic metres (BCM) of water on September 27.

Though this level is about 9 per cent lower than the last year's water stock of 132.5 BCM, it is 18 per cent higher than the long period average water holding of 101.7 BCM for this time of the year.

As many as 73 of these 81 major dams have reported more than 80 per cent storage. Of the remaining, 6 have between 50 per cent and 80 per cent storage and only 2 between 30 per cent and 50 per cent storage. The total irrigation potential of these reservoirs is estimated at 162.4 lakh hectares and hydel production potential of 14,533 MW.