Look for a close above 5,100.
AA week of very narrow range trading ended with small positive gains. The Nifty closed at 5,052.45 points for a gain of 1.1 per cent. The Sensex closed up 1.02 per cent at 17,021.85 points. The Defty closed up by 0.65 per cent with the rupee losing a little ground.
Breadth was balanced with advances matching declines while volumes dropped in the cash market. Domestic institutions (DII) were net sellers in moderate quantities while foreign institutional investors (FII) were net buyers in modest amounts. The BSE 500 gained around 1 per cent - about the same as the pivotal indices.
Outlook: Settlement week is likely to see a surge in intra-day volatility but we don't have strong directional indicators. The market gained on Friday afternoon on short-covering but it remains stuck inside the range of 4,900-5,100 as it has, for almost three weeks. Any breakout in settlement week would see a likely swing of 150-200 points.
Rationale: The odds are, there will be a breakout. Strong carryover and repeated probing of the resistance at 5,050+ makes it likely that this will be upwards. However, the corrective intermediate trend has now lasted four weeks and that is on the short side. The long-term trend is up, so is the short-term trend though that could fizzle on Monday itself. If you're bullish, get excited only if there's a close above 5,100.
Counter-view: Institutional attitude is not strong. DIIs have been selling relatively small quantities, and the FII volume is also low, though it is positive at the net level. If the institutions remain non-committal or negative, it's difficult to see operators and retail traders pushing the market up far. Trading focus normally narrows to the few top counters in settlement week. Stocks outside the derivative set might see sharp decline in volumes. A close below 4,850 would probably mean 4,700 being tested.
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Bulls & bears: The IT sector did better than the market, with the CNXIT up by 1.6 per cent. TCS and Moser Baer were among the more bullish counters. Banks underperformed week-on-week with the Bank Nifty up only 0.7 per cent but there was a big surge on Friday afternoon. Most of the major gainers were the second-string PSUs like Syndicate Bank and Andhra Bank.
Cement saw a lot of bullish action. The Grasim-Ultra Tech Cement deal seems to have focussed attention on the entire sector. Metal stocks such as Tata Steel, Sail and Hindalco also did well. The trend was mixed in real estate though there were high volumes as usual. Losers included power stocks such as Suzlon, Rpower and Bhel. Major telecom counters continued to look weak and sugar stocks are weakening on profit-booking.
MICRO TECHNICALS
ACC
Current Price: Rs 766
Target Price: Rs 800
The stock has seen volume expansion driving a price uptrend. It has cleared strong resistance at around Rs 750-755. The target projection would be somewhere between Rs 790-810, though there's significant resistance at Rs 775. Keep a stop at Rs 755 and go long. Increase the position above Rs 775.
DLF
Current Price: Rs 375.5
Target Price: Rs 400
The stock has started consolidating around a base of solid support between Rs 355-365. It is likely to range-trade between Rs 370-400. A breakout beyond major resistance at Rs 400 would require a serious volume expansion. Keep a stop at Rs 365 and go long. Book profits above Rs 395.
TCS
Current Price: Rs 693.15
Target Price: Rs 670
The stock has been bullish since March and the momentum accelerated after the 1:1 split in June. It is hit resistance just below Rs 700. A reaction would pullback till Rs 670. Keep a stop at Rs 700 and short. Cover at Rs 670. If it closes above Rs 700, reverse the position and go long with a target of Rs 720.
Vijaya Bank
Current Price: Rs 53.5
Target Price: Rs 62
The stock has a V-shaped bullish pattern and its testing resistance at Rs 55-56. Volumes are up. If it closes above Rs 56, the next target would be Rs 62. Keep a stop at Rs 50 and go long. Increase the position above Rs 56. Book profits above Rs 61.
Suzlon
Current Price: Rs 73
Target Price: Rs 65
The stock has been bearish since June. The long-term trend has seen resistance along a falling trendline at about minus 45 degrees. The reaction last week came along that trendline at Rs 79-80. The minimum downside would be Rs 65-66. Keep a stop at Rs 79 and short. Cover at Rs 66.