Brimming reservoirs amid expectation of a normal monsoon for another year has raised hope that farm output during the all-important kharif season will be good in 2011, laying the foundation for the targeted four per cent growth in agriculture in 2011-2012.
It was estimated at 5.4 per cent in 2010-11 but the number is not entirely comparable, as it comes on the back of 0.4 per cent farm growth in 2009-2010, on account of drought and low crop production. Economists believe the real test will be to maintain high growth in a normal monsoon year.
Already, the Union agriculture ministry feels paddy (rice) production in 2011-2012 could be at least 100 million tonnes (mt), up 9.4 per cent from last year, if the rains remain normal. Officials said the minimum support price (MSP) for paddy is poised to rise by almost Rs 160 per quintal for both common grade and grade ‘A’ rice.
Production of pulses is projected to be almost 18 mt, up from 17.29 mt this year. So also for oilseeds, expected at 21 mt. The Indian Sugar Mills Association has pegged sugar production next year at 26-26.5 mt, almost eight per cent more than 2010-2011.
Analysts believe a reasonably high retail price of major food commodities this year, along with MSP increase, should be an added incentive to farmers to increase acreage of various crops grown during the kharif season.
The India Meteorological Department said last month the rains would be normal and should hit the Kerala coast around May 31. Good rainfall during the June to September monsoon season is crucial, as just about 40 per cent of the total arable land is under irrigation. Adequate rain also provides soil moisture to help in good rabi production.
| Reservoir levels (basin-wise) as on May 26 Figures are in billion cubic metre | ||
| Name | 2010 | 2011 |
| Ganga | 1.914 | 2.602 |
| Indus | 2.007 | 6.245 |
| Narmada | 1.99 | 2.461 |
| Tapi | 1.092 | 2.406 |
| Mahi | 0.696 | 0.625 |
| Sabarmati | 0.019 | 0.093 |
| Name | 2010 | 2011 |
| Rivers in Kutch | 0.027 | 0.083 |
| Godavari | -0.04 | 4.533 |
| Krishna | 6.205 | 8.396 |
| Mahanadi | 2.922 | 2.565 |
| Cauvery | 2.203 | 4.539 |
| Others* | 2.793 | 3.036 |
| Total | 21.828 | 37.584 |
| *Largely comprises west flowing rivers of south Source: Central Water Commission | ||
That apart, the monsoon is important in filling the 81 major reservoirs, which support large chunks of canal systems in the northern and southern parts. Of the 81 reservoirs, 36 have substantial hydropower benefits. Data from the Central Water Commission show that storage level in all reservoirs is nearly 172 per cent more than last year’s during the same period and 174 per cent more than the 10-year average storage capacity.
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The retail price of rice, the largest grain sown during kharif, has been Rs 1-2 per kg more than last year. Though marginal, this should be complemented by a jump in MSP. In the case of cotton, average retail price has been higher than last year. Retail sugar prices have gallen by Rs 2-3 a kg, but with elections round the corner in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s second largest cane producing state, it is likely the state government would further increase the state advised price (SAP) for cane in 2011-2012. The SAP was raised by Rs 40 per quintal earlier.
In pulses, too, farmers are expecting a good price, as the government has proposed to increase the MSP of moong by 7.2 per cent from last year and of tur by 3.4 per cent. The price of major oilseeds, the bulk of which is grown during the kharif season, has also been more than last year.
The preliminary assessment of the agriculture ministry shows that till today, the area covered under moong was almost 163 per cent more than last year, at 189,000 hectares. Acreage of other pulses has also shown a big improvement. Sugarcane has been planted on 4.8 per cent more area till now, as compared to the same period last year. The area under cotton is almost 17 per cent more than last year.
“These are just preliminary numbers, but given the factors, the kharif season seems normal this year,” said Ramesh Chand, director, National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research.