India, the world’s second-biggest rice grower, may have a record harvest this year as increased planting offset drought in the east of the country.
“It will be a bumper crop this year as overall rains have been good and the government has distributed hybrid and good quality seeds,” Setia said in a phone interview from Karnal.
A record harvest may prompt the government to lift a two-year-old restriction on exports at a time when global demand is expected to increase as surging wheat prices encourage buyers to switch to rice. Rice exports from Pakistan, the world’s third- largest shipper, are expected to slump after a flooding damaged crops in areas accounting for 90 per cent of agricultural output.
Indian farmers had planted 27.4 million hectares of rice (67.7 million acres) as of August 13, compared with 25.1 million hectares a year earlier, the farm ministry said last week.
The condition of the crop in 16 out of the 19 major rice-growing states is “normal,” the ministry said. Crop conditions are “poor” in Bihar and “satisfactory” in Kerala and West Bengal, the biggest grower, it said.
“According to preliminary reports we expect a 75 per cent loss in rice production,” Ashok Kumar Sinha, the Bihar state government’s agriculture production commissioner, said in an interview yesterday.
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“A real assessment will be made in a week as the dry spell is still continuing.”
Reduced rain
The harvest may not be affected by drought in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said in New Delhi yesterday.
Rainfall in the June-September monsoon, the main source of irrigation for the country’s 235 million farmers, was 4 per cent lower than average as of yesterday, according to the state-owned weather bureau. Rain in Bihar was 29 per cent lower than normal, and 31 per cent deficient in West Bengal.
The crop in West Bengal will be lower than the 14.8 million tonnes last year because of drought in 11 districts, Narendranath Dey, farm minister of the state, said by phone today. Foodgrain production in Jharkhand may be less than last year’s 2.2 million tonnes, said Deepak Singh, agriculture director with the Jharkhand government. Rice accounts for 85 per cent to 90 per cent of the grain in the state, he said.
Pakistan floods
Rice futures in Chicago last month lost their premium over wheat for the first time since March 2008 as the worst drought in Russia in at least 50 years, dry conditions in Europe and rains in Canada curbed global wheat supply and pushed prices to the highest in almost two years.
The price climbed to $16.27 per 100 pounds last December on concern that India may become a net importer for the first time in more than two decades and as the Philippines boosted imports after storm destroyed crops. Rice for November delivery traded at $11.17 at 5:47 pm Singapore time.
Almost 700,000 hectares of standing crops in Pakistan are either underwater or destroyed by floods, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said on August 11. Pakistan was expected to export 3.8 million tonnes of rice this year, more than 10 per cent of the estimated global shipments of 30.4 million tons, according to the FAO, which made the forecast in July, before the flooding.
India won’t lift a ban on exports as it needs grains for supply to the poor at subsidized rates, Pawar said on August 10. There are “prospects” to export wheat after a recent surge in global prices, Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar told reporters in New Delhi today.
The government banned exports of all grades of rice except the aromatic Basmati variety in April 2008, to increase domestic supplies. The restriction remains in place as a drought in 2009 pared production by 10 percent in the year ended June 30.
The country’s rice reserves on July 1 were 24.26 million tonnes, more than double the normal buffer of 9.8 million tonnes, according to data compiled by the state-run Food Corporation of India.